This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026.
Current leader
100%
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1 outcome
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
VolumeMonitoring onlyProbability remained at 99.95%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $606.97 to $1,382.78. The cause is not established.
Yes: 100% → 100%
0.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedProbability remained at 99.95%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $606.97 to $1,382.78. The cause is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 99.95% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T03:46:37.967Z to 2026-10-19T04:01:27.980Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 99.95% → 99.95%
Probability remained at 99.95% (0 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 50 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 03:46:37 UTC to 2026-10-19 04:01:27 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $606.97 to $1,382.78.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 78.75% to 97.75% (+19 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T03:01:03.291Z to 2026-10-18T03:15:32.630Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 88.25% to 80.25% (-8 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T22:02:26.526Z to 2026-10-17T22:17:02.108Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 79.5% to 88.25% (+8.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T21:17:15.504Z to 2026-10-17T21:30:16.802Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 85% to 79% (-6 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T20:16:35.849Z to 2026-10-17T20:47:04.203Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 74.65% to 85% (+10.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T20:00:09.081Z to 2026-10-17T20:16:35.849Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 58.35% to 74.65% (+16.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T19:45:03.950Z to 2026-10-17T20:00:09.081Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 75.95% to 60.65% (-15.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T18:32:56.218Z to 2026-10-17T18:47:43.830Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026.
The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 are first displayed.
If the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher.
This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? — probability holds at 99.95%
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