Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 23.35%
The tracked probability fell to 23.35%, down 5.6 percentage points from 28.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October? — probability falls to 30.75%
The tracked probability fell to 30.75%, down 4.0 percentage points from 34.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.05%
The tracked probability rose to 47.05%, up 13.3 percentage points from 33.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.95%
The tracked probability fell to 38.95%, down 6.5 percentage points from 45.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 33.9%
The tracked probability fell to 33.9%, down 11.0 percentage points from 44.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 87%
The tracked probability rose to 87%, up 9.5 percentage points from 77.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 24.95%
The tracked probability fell to 24.95%, down 25.2 percentage points from 50.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 47.3 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.65%
The tracked probability rose to 24.65%, up 21.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.3 percentage points from 25.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 47.0 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 46.5 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 on October 20? — probability rises to 80.5%
The tracked probability rose to 80.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 73.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Amazon (AMZN) closes above ___ on October 20?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 20? — probability falls to 85.5%
The tracked probability fell to 85.5%, down 8.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 20?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on October 20? — probability falls to 50%
The tracked probability fell to 50%, down 43.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 20?
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 25.7%
The tracked probability rose to 25.7%, up 20.4 percentage points from 5.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.1 percentage points from 45.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Karachi be 23°C on October 20? — probability falls to 77.5%
The tracked probability fell to 77.5%, down 21.0 percentage points from 98.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Karachi on October 20?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on October 20? — probability falls to 53%
The tracked probability fell to 53%, down 40.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 20?
- Plunge
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 46.5%
The tracked probability fell to 46.5%, down 10.5 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 51%
The tracked probability rose to 51%, up 3.0 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 20.0 percentage points from 61.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 57.75%
The tracked probability rose to 57.75%, up 19.6 percentage points from 38.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.55%
The tracked probability fell to 11.55%, down 6.2 percentage points from 17.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October? — probability rises to 33%
The tracked probability rose to 33%, up 9.5 percentage points from 23.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.8%
The tracked probability fell to 18.8%, down 5.8 percentage points from 24.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Movistar KOI Go 0-3 in the Worlds 2026 Swiss Stage? — probability falls to 31%
The tracked probability fell to 31%, down 3.0 percentage points from 34% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Worlds 2026: Teams to Go 0-3 in Swiss Stage
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 28.5%
The tracked probability fell to 28.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from 34% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 20.3 percentage points from 23.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.25%
The tracked probability fell to 40.25%, down 6.5 percentage points from 46.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 22.9%
The tracked probability rose to 22.9%, up 19.8 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability rises to 57.5%
The tracked probability rose to 57.5%, up 15.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 63.45%
The tracked probability rose to 63.45%, up 3.5 percentage points from 59.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October? — probability rises to 56.5%
The tracked probability rose to 56.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 52.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Gavin Williams lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in strikeouts? — probability rises to 50.5%
The tracked probability rose to 50.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB Postseason: Strikeout Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.75%
The tracked probability fell to 32.75%, down 6.5 percentage points from 39.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0? — probability rises to 99.45%
The tracked probability rose to 99.45%, up 13.5 percentage points from 86% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.05%
The tracked probability fell to 36.05%, down 6.5 percentage points from 42.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.55%
The tracked probability fell to 9.55%, down 6.7 percentage points from 16.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? — probability rises to 96.75%
The tracked probability rose to 96.75%, up 3.9 percentage points from 92.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 31.5%
The tracked probability fell to 31.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 58.05%
The tracked probability rose to 58.05%, up 4.3 percentage points from 53.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability rises to 42%
The tracked probability rose to 42%, up 11.5 percentage points from 30.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability rises to 72%
The tracked probability rose to 72%, up 8.3 percentage points from 63.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 43%
The tracked probability fell to 43%, down 5.5 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability rises to 12.5%
The tracked probability rose to 12.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 7.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Surge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability rises to 33%
The tracked probability rose to 33%, up 4.5 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.45%
The tracked probability fell to 5.45%, down 6.2 percentage points from 11.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader