This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 19, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
VolumeMonitoring onlyProbability moved from 99.45% to 100%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $161.8304 to $2,216.8244. The cause is not established.
Yes: 99% → 100%
+0.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedProbability moved from 99.45% to 100%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $161.8304 to $2,216.8244. The cause is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 99.45% to 100% (+0.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z to 2026-10-20T20:51:55.691Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 99.45% → 100%
Probability moved from 99.45% to 100% (+0.55 percentage points). Observations were 3 hours 19 minutes 59 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:31:56 UTC to 2026-10-20 20:51:55 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $161.8304 to $2,216.8244.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 86% to 99.45% (+13.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:17:53.815Z to 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 99.45% to 86% (-13.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:45:11.590Z to 2026-10-20T17:01:46.397Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 86% to 99.45% (+13.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z to 2026-10-20T16:45:11.590Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 99.45% to 86% (-13.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:17:06.887Z to 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 61.95% to 99.45% (+37.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:01:42.707Z to 2026-10-20T16:17:06.887Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 99.45% to 61.95% (-37.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T15:51:45.778Z to 2026-10-20T16:01:42.707Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 61.95% to 99.45% (+37.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T14:17:37.347Z to 2026-10-20T14:30:30.463Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 19, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 19, 2026.
An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 20, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 19, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 20, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0? — probability rises to 100%
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