Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Odds SurgeWhat price will Ethereum hit October 5-11?
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 5-11? — probability rises to 6.3%
The tracked probability rose to 6.3%, up 3.4 percentage points from 2.95% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds PlungeSongs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability falls to 70%
The tracked probability fell to 70%, down 4.0 percentage points from 74% in the latest observation window. The reason for this decrease has not been verified.
- Odds SurgeDP World Tour: Open de Espana Winner
Will Adrian Otaegui win the 2026 Open de Espana? — probability rises to 3.95%
The tracked probability rose to 3.95%, up 3.4 percentage points from 0.6% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgeOGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace - Total Corners
OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: OGC Nice O/U 2.5 Corners — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 50.0 percentage points from 0.05% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgePresidential Election Winner 2028
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — probability holds at 0.15%
The tracked probability held at 0.15% in the latest observation window. This reading does not establish a new development in the underlying event.
- Odds SurgeDP World Tour: Open de Espana Winner
Will Grant Forrest win the 2026 Open de Espana? — probability rises to 98.95%
The tracked probability rose to 98.95%, up 57.5 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. Only background evidence is available, so it is not used to explain the repricing.
- Odds PlungeChinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. The price decrease is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds PlungePro Football: First WR to 1,000 Receiving Yards
Will Zay Flowers be the first WR to 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 14.05%
The tracked probability fell to 14.05%, down 12.1 percentage points from 26.1% in the latest observation window. Why the probability fell is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgeWhat price will Bitcoin hit October 5-11?
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 5-11? — probability rises to 41%
The tracked probability rose to 41%, up 10.0 percentage points from 31% in the latest observation window. The price increase is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds SurgeSolana above ___ on October 12?
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on October 12? — probability rises to 66.5%
The tracked probability rose to 66.5%, up 10.0 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgeWomen's Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026
Will Pernille Harder finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? — probability rises to 33%
The tracked probability rose to 33%, up 5.0 percentage points from 28% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgeDP World Tour: Open de Espana Winner
Will Grant Forrest win the 2026 Open de Espana? — probability rises to 41.5%
The tracked probability rose to 41.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgeWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026? — probability rises to 23%
The tracked probability rose to 23%, up 5.5 percentage points from 17.5% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgeSolana above ___ on October 13?
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on October 13? — probability rises to 55%
The tracked probability rose to 55%, up 5.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgeLes Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
Will Les Républicains hold 121-124 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? — probability rises to 78.5%
The tracked probability rose to 78.5%, up 6.5 percentage points from 72% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgePro Football: First WR to 1,000 Receiving Yards
Will Zay Flowers be the first WR to 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 26.1%
The tracked probability rose to 26.1%, up 6.0 percentage points from 20.05% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgeSolana above ___ on October 11?
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on October 11? — probability rises to 49.35%
The tracked probability rose to 49.35%, up 27.4 percentage points from 22% in the latest observation window. Only background evidence is available, so it is not used to explain the repricing.
- Odds SurgeWhat price will Bitcoin hit October 5-11?
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 5-11? — probability rises to 31%
The tracked probability rose to 31%, up 9.5 percentage points from 21.5% in the latest observation window. The price increase is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds SurgeEthereum above ___ on October 12?
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 12? — probability rises to 72%
The tracked probability rose to 72%, up 11.5 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgeNHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
Will Macklin Celebrini record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 84%
The tracked probability rose to 84%, up 9.5 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. The price increase is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds SurgeWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? — probability holds at 0.45%
The tracked probability held at 0.45% in the latest observation window. This reading does not establish a new development in the underlying event.
- Odds SurgeChinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 47.0 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? — probability rises to 90.6%
The tracked probability rose to 90.6%, up 14.3 percentage points from 76.35% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgePro Football: First RB to 1,000 Rushing Yards
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the first RB to 1,000 rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 23.5%
The tracked probability rose to 23.5%, up 12.1 percentage points from 11.45% in the latest observation window. The price increase is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds SurgeSolana above ___ on October 12?
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on October 12? — probability rises to 56.5%
The tracked probability rose to 56.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgeWhich teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
Will FlyQuest qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 85.5%
The tracked probability rose to 85.5%, up 11.5 percentage points from 74% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds PlungeEagles vs. Jaguars
1H Spread: Eagles (-4.5) — probability falls to 72.7%
The tracked probability fell to 72.7%, down 26.3 percentage points from 98.95% in the latest observation window. Only background evidence is available, so it is not used to explain the repricing.
- Odds Surge"Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? — probability rises to 87.5%
The tracked probability rose to 87.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 83% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgeSolana above ___ on October 11?
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on October 11? — probability rises to 22%
The tracked probability rose to 22%, up 7.4 percentage points from 14.65% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgeDP World Tour: Open de Espana Winner
Will Grant Forrest win the 2026 Open de Espana? — probability rises to 38%
The tracked probability rose to 38%, up 4.0 percentage points from 34% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds PlungeShipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026? — probability falls to 90.3%
The tracked probability fell to 90.3%, down 6.5 percentage points from 96.8% in the latest observation window. The price decrease is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds SurgeSolana above ___ on October 13?
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on October 13? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 3.0 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds PlungeShipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 8, 2026? — probability falls to 25.5%
The tracked probability fell to 25.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 32.5% in the latest observation window. Why the probability fell is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgeWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? — probability holds at 0.75%
The tracked probability held at 0.75% in the latest observation window. This reading does not establish a new development in the underlying event.
- Odds SurgeM15 Heraklion: Evangelos Kypriotis vs Leyton Rivera
M15 Heraklion, Main Draw: Completed Match: Evangelos Kypriotis vs Leyton Rivera — probability rises to 45.05%
The tracked probability rose to 45.05%, up 40.5 percentage points from 4.55% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgeWhich teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 76.25%
The tracked probability rose to 76.25%, up 22.6 percentage points from 53.65% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds PlungeWho will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 56%
The tracked probability fell to 56%, down 12.5 percentage points from 68.5% in the latest observation window. Why the probability fell is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds PlungeLes Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
Will Les Républicains hold 121-124 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? — probability falls to 72%
The tracked probability fell to 72%, down 10.5 percentage points from 82.5% in the latest observation window. The price decrease is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds PlungeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? — probability falls to 76.35%
The tracked probability fell to 76.35%, down 13.8 percentage points from 90.1% in the latest observation window. The price decrease is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds PlungePro Football: Carnell Tate 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
Will Carnell Tate have 1,174.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 12.5%
The tracked probability fell to 12.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 22% in the latest observation window. Why the probability fell is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds PlungeVernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? — probability falls to 60.5%
The tracked probability fell to 60.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 65% in the latest observation window. The reason for this decrease has not been verified.
- Odds PlungeShipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026? — probability falls to 82%
The tracked probability fell to 82%, down 3.0 percentage points from 85% in the latest observation window. Why the probability fell is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds PlungeFantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. Why the probability fell is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds PlungeM15 Heraklion: Evangelos Kypriotis vs Leyton Rivera
M15 Heraklion, Main Draw: Completed Match: Evangelos Kypriotis vs Leyton Rivera — probability falls to 4.55%
The tracked probability fell to 4.55%, down 43.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. The reason for this decrease has not been verified.
- Odds PlungeWhich teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 53.65%
The tracked probability fell to 53.65%, down 22.6 percentage points from 76.25% in the latest observation window. Why the probability fell is not established by the evidence attached to this update.
- Odds SurgeWho will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 68.5%
The tracked probability rose to 68.5%, up 17.5 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgePro Football: Makai Lemon 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 34%
The tracked probability rose to 34%, up 4.5 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. The price increase is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds SurgeNHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
Will Auston Matthews record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 76.5%
The tracked probability rose to 76.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 71% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
- Odds SurgeLes Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
Will Les Républicains hold 121-124 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? — probability rises to 82.5%
The tracked probability rose to 82.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 78% in the latest observation window. The price increase is recorded; its cause remains unverified.
- Odds PlungeFantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring WRs
Will Justin Jefferson finish as a top-12 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 66.5% in the latest observation window. The reason for this decrease has not been verified.