activeCrypto-2% 24h

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

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Current leader
No 84%
Leader 24h
-2%
24h volume
13.7
Liquidity
1K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

No

84%

-2% 24h

Yes

17%

+2% 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Living timeline · 21 significant updates

Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

Odds chart

Probability over time

Odds chart showing latest No probability of 84%.

Story so far

Limited confidence

No story summary has been written yet.

The latest move is visible, but the public source trail is still thin.

Latest update

Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

Yes moved lower from 26.0% to 14.5% (-11.5 points) between 2026-07-13T15:00:23.000Z and 2026-07-14T15:30:05.042Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • No open questions have been logged yet.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The "Yes" outcome in "Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026" made a sharp move from 26.0% to 14.5% between 2026-07-13T15:00:23.000Z and 2026-07-14T15:30:05.042Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.

    What changed

    The market repriced by -11.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.