activeTechAugust 31, 2026 -7% 24h

GPT-6 released by…?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

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Current leader
December 31, 2026 62%
Largest 24h move
August 31, 2026 -7%
24h volume
1.9K
Liquidity
25.9K

Top candidates

8 outcomes

December 31, 2026

62%

-2% 24h

August 31, 2026

44%

-7% 24h

September 30, 2026

24%

+2% 24h

August 21, 2026

16%

+1% 24h

August 14, 2026

9%

-6% 24h

Show all outcomes

July 31, 2026

6%

-0%

August 7, 2026

4%

-1%

June 30, 2026

1%

0%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.

A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4.

Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Living timeline · 2 significant updates

Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 90%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

No event-level story summary has been written yet.

No major update has changed the story in 8 days.

Latest update

Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

Yes moved lower from 27.5% to 20.5% (-7.0 points) between 2026-07-05T19:52:01.879Z and 2026-07-06T19:52:01.879Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • No open questions have been logged yet.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The "Yes" outcome in "Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?" made a sharp move from 27.5% to 20.5% between 2026-07-05T19:52:01.879Z and 2026-07-06T19:52:01.879Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.

    What changed

    The market repriced by -7.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.