Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4.1%
The tracked probability fell to 4.1%, down 21.6 percentage points from 25.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 19.1%
The tracked probability fell to 19.1%, down 4.3 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 MLS Golden Boot? — probability falls to 49.5%
The tracked probability fell to 49.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 56% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 MLS Golden Boot?
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 10.35%
The tracked probability fell to 10.35%, down 12.7 percentage points from 23.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,749.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 37%
The tracked probability fell to 37%, down 17.0 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $32 in October? — probability falls to 18.75%
The tracked probability fell to 18.75%, down 31.0 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will "Sacrifice" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? — probability rises to 62.5%
The tracked probability rose to 62.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 59% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (October 20)
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 16%
The tracked probability rose to 16%, up 4.0 percentage points from 12% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 10.15%
The tracked probability rose to 10.15%, up 7.1 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 25.45%
The tracked probability fell to 25.45%, down 24.2 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.95%
The tracked probability rose to 24.95%, up 20.9 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 93.6%
The tracked probability rose to 93.6%, up 6.2 percentage points from 87.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability rises to 77.4%
The tracked probability rose to 77.4%, up 4.6 percentage points from 72.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Team to advance to 2027 quarters
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 45.6 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 60.5%
The tracked probability rose to 60.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 53.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Ezequiel Duran win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 67.05%
The tracked probability fell to 67.05%, down 20.0 percentage points from 87.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 35.9%
The tracked probability rose to 35.9%, up 30.8 percentage points from 5.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will LØS make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 59.25%
The tracked probability fell to 59.25%, down 15.2 percentage points from 74.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 12.7%
The tracked probability rose to 12.7%, up 9.6 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.75%
The tracked probability rose to 25.75%, up 22.7 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability rises to 25.5%
The tracked probability rose to 25.5%, up 11.0 percentage points from 14.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23%
The tracked probability rose to 23%, up 19.4 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25.85%
The tracked probability fell to 25.85%, down 24.5 percentage points from 50.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.9%
The tracked probability fell to 38.9%, down 8.7 percentage points from 47.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 3.8 percentage points from 45.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 46.05%
The tracked probability fell to 46.05%, down 3.2 percentage points from 49.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 48%
The tracked probability rose to 48%, up 4.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.75%
The tracked probability fell to 41.75%, down 6.5 percentage points from 48.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 16? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 24.5 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Where will it rain on October 16?
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.4%
The tracked probability rose to 13.4%, up 10.4 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.9%
The tracked probability fell to 28.9%, down 6.5 percentage points from 35.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.75%
The tracked probability fell to 29.75%, down 6.7 percentage points from 36.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 20.55%
The tracked probability rose to 20.55%, up 17.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 6.7 percentage points from 10.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.15%
The tracked probability fell to 29.15%, down 5.6 percentage points from 34.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.2%
The tracked probability fell to 37.2%, down 6.3 percentage points from 43.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 10.75%
The tracked probability rose to 10.75%, up 7.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 48.5%
The tracked probability rose to 48.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 31.2%
The tracked probability rose to 31.2%, up 14.9 percentage points from 16.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 43.35%
The tracked probability rose to 43.35%, up 6.0 percentage points from 37.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 16.95%
The tracked probability fell to 16.95%, down 9.6 percentage points from 26.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 15.5%
The tracked probability fell to 15.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 21.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Makai Lemon 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 21.6 percentage points from 25.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 65.25%
The tracked probability rose to 65.25%, up 3.5 percentage points from 61.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 45.2%
The tracked probability rose to 45.2%, up 42.1 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.7%
The tracked probability fell to 37.7%, down 9.2 percentage points from 46.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.55%
The tracked probability fell to 27.55%, down 11.4 percentage points from 38.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader