This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 16, 2026.
Current leader
100%
100%
6 outcomes
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on October 16?
Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 16?
Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 16?
Will it rain in Houston, TX on October 16?
Will it rain in Dallas, TX on October 16?
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 16?
0%
-4.5 pp
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 12.4 percentage points from 12.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 13% → 0%
-12.4 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 12.4 percentage points from 12.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 12.5% to 0.05% (-12.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T17:45:55.885Z to 2026-10-17T18:02:12.136Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 12.5% → 0.05%
Probability moved from 12.5% to 0.05% (-12.45 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 16 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 17:45:55 UTC to 2026-10-17 18:02:12 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 0.55% to 12.5% (+11.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T16:16:29.540Z to 2026-10-17T16:32:39.344Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 12.5% to 0.55% (-11.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T16:00:49.504Z to 2026-10-17T16:16:29.540Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 25% to 12.5% (-12.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T14:01:03.484Z to 2026-10-17T14:16:41.602Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 0.55% to 25% (+24.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:46:39.870Z to 2026-10-17T09:15:58.266Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 24.9% to 0.55% (-24.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:17:41.057Z to 2026-10-17T08:46:39.870Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 1.05% to 24.9% (+23.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:02:51.048Z to 2026-10-17T08:17:41.057Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 25% to 1.05% (-23.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T07:46:27.364Z to 2026-10-17T08:02:51.048Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 16, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types.
The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date.
If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 16? — probability falls to 0.05%
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