Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Dewi Weber win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 49.0 percentage points from 1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 22.5 percentage points from 25.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 62.85%
The tracked probability fell to 62.85%, down 18.4 percentage points from 81.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?
- Plunge
FK Zorya Luhansk vs. FK Chornomorets Odesa: Both Teams to Score in First Half — probability falls to 90.5%
The tracked probability fell to 90.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 99.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: FK Zorya Luhansk vs. FK Chornomorets Odesa - More Markets
- Surge
Will Yijia Ren win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 48.9 percentage points from 1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will Shuying Li win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 49.35%
The tracked probability rose to 49.35%, up 48.4 percentage points from 1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will Jing Yan win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 49.35%
The tracked probability rose to 49.35%, up 48.4 percentage points from 1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Surge
Will Aditi Ashok win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability rises to 49.4%
The tracked probability rose to 49.4%, up 48.4 percentage points from 1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 34.45%
The tracked probability fell to 34.45%, down 15.4 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $188 in October? — probability rises to 19.5%
The tracked probability rose to 19.5%, up 14.0 percentage points from 5.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.7 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 73.5%
The tracked probability rose to 73.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 68% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 in October? — probability falls to 6%
The tracked probability fell to 6%, down 43.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 16.4 percentage points from 19.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 34.4%
The tracked probability rose to 34.4%, up 9.4 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.6%
The tracked probability fell to 39.6%, down 5.0 percentage points from 44.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 63%
The tracked probability rose to 63%, up 11.0 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 33.9%
The tracked probability fell to 33.9%, down 15.5 percentage points from 49.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.25%
The tracked probability rose to 17.25%, up 13.7 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 77.5%
The tracked probability rose to 77.5%, up 6.5 percentage points from 71% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will C.J. Stroud be the first QB to 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 51.85%
The tracked probability rose to 51.85%, up 19.0 percentage points from 32.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.6%
The tracked probability fell to 9.6%, down 10.6 percentage points from 20.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.95%
The tracked probability rose to 45.95%, up 41.2 percentage points from 4.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.4%
The tracked probability rose to 46.4%, up 17.1 percentage points from 29.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 9.05%
The tracked probability rose to 9.05%, up 5.5 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.2%
The tracked probability rose to 48.2%, up 13.2 percentage points from 35.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.4 percentage points from 49.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 73%
The tracked probability rose to 73%, up 5.0 percentage points from 68% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 23.55%
The tracked probability rose to 23.55%, up 20.4 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability falls to 16.95%
The tracked probability fell to 16.95%, down 10.4 percentage points from 27.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Team to advance to 2027 quarters
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.05%
The tracked probability fell to 24.05%, down 3.8 percentage points from 27.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 25.6%
The tracked probability rose to 25.6%, up 20.9 percentage points from 4.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 2.1%
The tracked probability fell to 2.1%, down 22.9 percentage points from 24.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 23.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Dominik Kotarski record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? — probability rises to 37.6%
The tracked probability rose to 37.6%, up 3.2 percentage points from 34.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Conference League: Most Clean Sheets (GK) 2026-27
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.8%
The tracked probability rose to 47.8%, up 3.3 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Deft play for Nongshim RedForce in 2027? — probability falls to 86.3%
The tracked probability fell to 86.3%, down 9.7 percentage points from 95.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LoL Offseason: Deft Next Team
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 24.8%
The tracked probability fell to 24.8%, down 24.7 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 30.45%
The tracked probability rose to 30.45%, up 26.5 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50.3%
The tracked probability rose to 50.3%, up 47.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 17? — probability falls to 74.5%
The tracked probability fell to 74.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 81% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 17?
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.65%
The tracked probability rose to 25.65%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 3.25%
The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 47.2 percentage points from 50.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 2.5%
The tracked probability fell to 2.5%, down 22.6 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $32 in October? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 47.0 percentage points from 2.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 2.8%
The tracked probability fell to 2.8%, down 22.6 percentage points from 25.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25.5%
The tracked probability fell to 25.5%, down 24.8 percentage points from 50.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability falls to 1.5%
The tracked probability fell to 1.5%, down 46.6 percentage points from 48.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?