Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Newcastle United FC O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 0.85%
The tracked probability fell to 0.85%, down 34.6 percentage points from 35.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.55%
The tracked probability rose to 16.55%, up 14.0 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $32 in October? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 21.4 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 35.65%
The tracked probability rose to 35.65%, up 32.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4.05%
The tracked probability fell to 4.05%, down 9.2 percentage points from 13.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 21.6 percentage points from 3.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability rises to 27.7%
The tracked probability rose to 27.7%, up 14.5 percentage points from 13.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Team to advance to 2027 quarters
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.05%
The tracked probability rose to 48.05%, up 14.0 percentage points from 34.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 34.5%
The tracked probability rose to 34.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 30% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 19? — probability rises to 34.5%
The tracked probability rose to 34.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 26% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 3.4%
The tracked probability fell to 3.4%, down 4.9 percentage points from 8.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.3%
The tracked probability rose to 13.3%, up 10.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.3%
The tracked probability rose to 33.3%, up 30.7 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.65%
The tracked probability fell to 3.65%, down 13.3 percentage points from 16.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.15%
The tracked probability fell to 26.15%, down 4.7 percentage points from 30.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026? — probability falls to 77%
The tracked probability fell to 77%, down 4.5 percentage points from 81.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.15%
The tracked probability fell to 44.15%, down 5.5 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Ezequiel Duran win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 88%
The tracked probability rose to 88%, up 9.5 percentage points from 78.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.75%
The tracked probability rose to 16.75%, up 13.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 92.65%
The tracked probability rose to 92.65%, up 16.3 percentage points from 76.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 17? — probability falls to 88.5%
The tracked probability fell to 88.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 17?
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.7%
The tracked probability rose to 16.7%, up 14.2 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 44.95%
The tracked probability rose to 44.95%, up 5.8 percentage points from 39.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Ezequiel Duran win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 78.5%
The tracked probability fell to 78.5%, down 4.7 percentage points from 83.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 13.35%
The tracked probability rose to 13.35%, up 10.4 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 10.25%
The tracked probability rose to 10.25%, up 7.5 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 76.35%
The tracked probability fell to 76.35%, down 16.2 percentage points from 92.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 17? — probability rises to 91.5%
The tracked probability rose to 91.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 87% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 17?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.35%
The tracked probability fell to 39.35%, down 6.5 percentage points from 45.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 21.5%
The tracked probability fell to 21.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Makai Lemon 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability falls to 47%
The tracked probability fell to 47%, down 4.0 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.75%
The tracked probability rose to 46.75%, up 18.4 percentage points from 28.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 63%
The tracked probability fell to 63%, down 11.5 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will C.J. Stroud be the first QB to 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 23.3%
The tracked probability fell to 23.3%, down 9.6 percentage points from 32.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards
- Surge
Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Paris FC O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 37.45%
The tracked probability rose to 37.45%, up 12.0 percentage points from 25.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 25.55%
The tracked probability fell to 25.55%, down 12.4 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 59%
The tracked probability rose to 59%, up 13.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 40+ Goals
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 10.6%
The tracked probability rose to 10.6%, up 7.1 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 26.2%
The tracked probability rose to 26.2%, up 23.2 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability falls to 43%
The tracked probability fell to 43%, down 3.0 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 19.55%
The tracked probability rose to 19.55%, up 16.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 50.2%
The tracked probability rose to 50.2%, up 24.8 percentage points from 25.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 33.9%
The tracked probability fell to 33.9%, down 15.6 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 8.4%
The tracked probability rose to 8.4%, up 6.1 percentage points from 2.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 33.2%
The tracked probability rose to 33.2%, up 32.5 percentage points from 0.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 15.15%
The tracked probability fell to 15.15%, down 6.0 percentage points from 21.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Parma qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 9.3 percentage points from 12.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Serie A: Team to qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League
- Surge
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Newcastle United FC O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 35.5%
The tracked probability rose to 35.5%, up 15.5 percentage points from 20% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 22.9%
The tracked probability fell to 22.9%, down 22.4 percentage points from 45.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.25%
The tracked probability rose to 13.25%, up 9.8 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader