S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
Current leader
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2 outcomes
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 19?
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 96.55%, up 4.4 percentage points from 92.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 92% → 97%
+4.4 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 96.55%, up 4.4 percentage points from 92.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 92.1% to 96.55% (+4.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T18:32:45.451Z to 2026-10-19T18:45:04.419Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 92.1% → 96.55%
Probability moved from 92.1% to 96.55% (+4.45 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 19 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 18:32:45 UTC to 2026-10-19 18:45:04 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.55% to 92.1% (-4.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T18:17:00.373Z to 2026-10-19T18:32:45.451Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 93.4% to 96.55% (+3.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T18:02:21.262Z to 2026-10-19T18:17:00.373Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 85.35% to 93.4% (+8.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T17:47:07.320Z to 2026-10-19T18:02:21.262Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 7.5% to 4% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T17:32:40.438Z to 2026-10-19T17:47:07.320Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 16.5% to 11% (-5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T16:47:25.621Z to 2026-10-19T17:02:40.883Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 19.5% to 16.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T16:30:23.102Z to 2026-10-19T16:47:25.621Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 90.55% to 83.55% (-7 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T16:30:23.102Z to 2026-10-19T16:47:25.621Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 19? — probability rises to 96.55%
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