Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will LEVIATÁN make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 59.4%
The tracked probability fell to 59.4%, down 6.8 percentage points from 66.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Newcastle United FC O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 48.9 percentage points from 1.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.55%
The tracked probability fell to 28.55%, down 5.0 percentage points from 33.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 21.5 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12? — probability rises to 63%
The tracked probability rose to 63%, up 8.3 percentage points from 54.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 58%
The tracked probability fell to 58%, down 3.5 percentage points from 61.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 21.5 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 12.65%
The tracked probability fell to 12.65%, down 12.4 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 92.4%
The tracked probability rose to 92.4%, up 15.8 percentage points from 76.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 50.2%
The tracked probability rose to 50.2%, up 14.9 percentage points from 35.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 35.5%
The tracked probability rose to 35.5%, up 31.9 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 41.5%
The tracked probability rose to 41.5%, up 33.9 percentage points from 7.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.55%
The tracked probability fell to 41.55%, down 4.2 percentage points from 45.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 23.3%
The tracked probability fell to 23.3%, down 22.4 percentage points from 45.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 51.75%
The tracked probability fell to 51.75%, down 9.6 percentage points from 61.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability falls to 1.5%
The tracked probability fell to 1.5%, down 47.9 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Plunge
Will C.J. Stroud be the first QB to 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 23.5%
The tracked probability fell to 23.5%, down 9.4 percentage points from 32.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.75%
The tracked probability rose to 17.75%, up 14.2 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 35.95%
The tracked probability rose to 35.95%, up 32.4 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 1.4%
The tracked probability fell to 1.4%, down 9.8 percentage points from 11.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 49.4%
The tracked probability rose to 49.4%, up 49.1 percentage points from 0.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
- Surge
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 7.5 — probability rises to 49.35%
The tracked probability rose to 49.35%, up 48.9 percentage points from 0.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.75%
The tracked probability rose to 16.75%, up 13.2 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 12.7 percentage points from 16.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.3%
The tracked probability rose to 17.3%, up 13.3 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 23.6%
The tracked probability rose to 23.6%, up 9.8 percentage points from 13.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 in October? — probability falls to 7%
The tracked probability fell to 7%, down 42.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 74.5%
The tracked probability rose to 74.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 67.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.55%
The tracked probability rose to 45.55%, up 3.1 percentage points from 42.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 52.5%
The tracked probability rose to 52.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.55%
The tracked probability fell to 33.55%, down 5.3 percentage points from 38.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will LEVIATÁN make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 66.2%
The tracked probability fell to 66.2%, down 16.3 percentage points from 82.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.7%
The tracked probability rose to 48.7%, up 8.7 percentage points from 39.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: 1st Half O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 52.3 percentage points from 52.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 10.3%
The tracked probability fell to 10.3%, down 8.4 percentage points from 18.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.75%
The tracked probability fell to 29.75%, down 4.0 percentage points from 33.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 86%
The tracked probability rose to 86%, up 3.5 percentage points from 82.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
- Surge
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 37%
The tracked probability rose to 37%, up 10.5 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club - More Markets
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 37.95%
The tracked probability rose to 37.95%, up 11.0 percentage points from 26.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 13.0 percentage points from 16.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 13.2 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.1%
The tracked probability rose to 17.1%, up 13.5 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 35.35%
The tracked probability fell to 35.35%, down 13.3 percentage points from 48.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4.05%
The tracked probability fell to 4.05%, down 9.9 percentage points from 13.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Newcastle United FC O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 1.1%
The tracked probability fell to 1.1%, down 33.9 percentage points from 35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 12.8 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 16.5 percentage points from 20.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 14.3 percentage points from 17.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.7%
The tracked probability rose to 25.7%, up 21.6 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 9.2 percentage points from 12.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader