Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? — probability rises to 46.5%
The tracked probability rose to 46.5%, up 6.3 percentage points from 40.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 24.5 percentage points from 28% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 13.8 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.8 percentage points from 33.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Exact Score: Persib Bandung 1 - 0 Persik Kediri? — probability rises to 92%
The tracked probability rose to 92%, up 41.5 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Persib Bandung vs. Persik Kediri - Exact Score
- Surge
FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC: FC Lorient O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 48.0 percentage points from 1.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 22%
The tracked probability rose to 22%, up 8.5 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
- Surge
FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC: AS Monaco FC O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 30.0 percentage points from 19.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 49.25%
The tracked probability rose to 49.25%, up 46.2 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50.1%
The tracked probability rose to 50.1%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Jynxzi reach Unreal rank in Fortnite by October 19, 2026? (copy) — probability rises to 97.65%
The tracked probability rose to 97.65%, up 5.6 percentage points from 92% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Jynxzi reach Unreal rank in Fortnite by...?
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 5.65%
The tracked probability fell to 5.65%, down 4.7 percentage points from 10.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on October 18? — probability rises to 90.1%
The tracked probability rose to 90.1%, up 7.0 percentage points from 83.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 18?
- Plunge
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31? — probability falls to 66%
The tracked probability fell to 66%, down 17.0 percentage points from 83% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NATO downs another Russian drone by...?
- Surge
Will Jynxzi reach Unreal rank in Fortnite by October 18, 2026? — probability rises to 89%
The tracked probability rose to 89%, up 8.5 percentage points from 80.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Jynxzi reach Unreal rank in Fortnite by...?
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026? — probability falls to 40%
The tracked probability fell to 40%, down 8.5 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 29.8%
The tracked probability rose to 29.8%, up 27.0 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Volume
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2027? — probability holds at 1.45%
Probability remained at 1.45%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $317.6035 to $1,228.1135. The cause is not established.
Market: Will StandX launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 10.3%
The tracked probability rose to 10.3%, up 6.8 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 10.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.9%
The tracked probability rose to 47.9%, up 7.5 percentage points from 40.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Volume
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — probability falls to 16.1%
Probability moved from 16.25% to 16.1%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $1,712.2426 to $3,767.1236. The cause is not established.
Market: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Plunge
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? — probability falls to 50.5%
The tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- Surge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.15%
The tracked probability rose to 48.15%, up 9.4 percentage points from 38.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 52.5%
The tracked probability rose to 52.5%, up 13.5 percentage points from 39% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 7.2 percentage points from 10.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.55%
The tracked probability rose to 12.55%, up 9.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 44%
The tracked probability rose to 44%, up 4.0 percentage points from 40% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19? — probability falls to 9.5%
The tracked probability fell to 9.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 14.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Parma qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? — probability falls to 13.4%
The tracked probability fell to 13.4%, down 10.5 percentage points from 23.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Serie A: Team to qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.4%
The tracked probability rose to 17.4%, up 13.1 percentage points from 4.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.7%
The tracked probability rose to 47.7%, up 8.7 percentage points from 39% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 19.6%
The tracked probability rose to 19.6%, up 16.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.8%
The tracked probability rose to 47.8%, up 5.1 percentage points from 42.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 59%
The tracked probability rose to 59%, up 6.5 percentage points from 52.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.9%
The tracked probability rose to 46.9%, up 14.2 percentage points from 32.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 31.65%
The tracked probability rose to 31.65%, up 10.2 percentage points from 21.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings? — probability rises to 31.45%
The tracked probability rose to 31.45%, up 8.3 percentage points from 23.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?
- Surge
Will Dalton Kincaid finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 38%
The tracked probability rose to 38%, up 4.5 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 85.8%
The tracked probability rose to 85.8%, up 12.2 percentage points from 73.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 30.6 percentage points from 34.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.6%
The tracked probability fell to 2.6%, down 14.2 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 30.2 percentage points from 33.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 22.6%
The tracked probability rose to 22.6%, up 19.5 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will C.J. Stroud be the first QB to 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 35.05%
The tracked probability fell to 35.05%, down 8.0 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.65%
The tracked probability rose to 25.65%, up 12.7 percentage points from 12.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28%
The tracked probability rose to 28%, up 24.5 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.75%
The tracked probability rose to 16.75%, up 13.7 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader