Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026? — probability rises to 21.7%
The tracked probability rose to 21.7%, up 18.5 percentage points from 3.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 45.3%
The tracked probability rose to 45.3%, up 42.5 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 22.5%
The tracked probability rose to 22.5%, up 19.0 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.1 percentage points from 45.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Dewa United vs. Persijap Jepara: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 49.0 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Dewa United vs. Persijap Jepara - More Markets
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 20? — probability rises to 97.5%
The tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 5.1 percentage points from 92.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Beijing on October 20?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20? — probability falls to 79.5%
The tracked probability fell to 79.5%, down 15.5 percentage points from 95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
- Surge
Will Jordan Love have 3,799.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 74.5%
The tracked probability rose to 74.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 66.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jordan Love 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.55%
The tracked probability rose to 24.55%, up 21.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.6 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.1 percentage points from 49.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 16.75%
The tracked probability fell to 16.75%, down 7.8 percentage points from 24.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.2 percentage points from 45.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 42.5 percentage points from 7.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.35%
The tracked probability fell to 39.35%, down 5.3 percentage points from 44.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.2%
The tracked probability fell to 40.2%, down 7.7 percentage points from 47.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.3%
The tracked probability fell to 39.3%, down 8.8 percentage points from 48.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.6%
The tracked probability fell to 40.6%, down 6.2 percentage points from 46.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 59.75%
The tracked probability rose to 59.75%, up 5.2 percentage points from 54.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 28%
The tracked probability rose to 28%, up 21.9 percentage points from 6.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 10.95%
The tracked probability fell to 10.95%, down 17.6 percentage points from 28.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 21.6 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability rises to 61%
The tracked probability rose to 61%, up 3.0 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate anno… — probability rises to 57.5%
The tracked probability rose to 57.5%, up 3.6 percentage points from 53.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bank of Canada Decision in October?
- Plunge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability falls to 47.5%
The tracked probability fell to 47.5%, down 14.5 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 22.45%
The tracked probability fell to 22.45%, down 9.5 percentage points from 31.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.25%
The tracked probability fell to 12.25%, down 8.7 percentage points from 20.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 17.95%
The tracked probability rose to 17.95%, up 8.4 percentage points from 9.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? — probability falls to 64.4%
The tracked probability fell to 64.4%, down 10.1 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
- Surge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability rises to 43%
The tracked probability rose to 43%, up 11.0 percentage points from 32% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.4%
The tracked probability fell to 41.4%, down 6.7 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability rises to 11.55%
The tracked probability rose to 11.55%, up 9.2 percentage points from 2.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 51%
The tracked probability rose to 51%, up 3.0 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 19? — probability falls to 87.5%
The tracked probability fell to 87.5%, down 8.6 percentage points from 96.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in London on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 14.1%
The tracked probability fell to 14.1%, down 8.6 percentage points from 22.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 60.6%
The tracked probability fell to 60.6%, down 6.7 percentage points from 67.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Surge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 77%
The tracked probability rose to 77%, up 5.5 percentage points from 71.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Surge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 24.5%
The tracked probability rose to 24.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 17% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 56.4%
The tracked probability rose to 56.4%, up 7.5 percentage points from 48.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability falls to 36.5%
The tracked probability fell to 36.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 40% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will Jonathon Brooks finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.15%
The tracked probability rose to 48.15%, up 5.7 percentage points from 42.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.9%
The tracked probability fell to 35.9%, down 7.7 percentage points from 43.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.2%
The tracked probability fell to 5.2%, down 8.0 percentage points from 13.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Caleb Williams have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 43.5%
The tracked probability rose to 43.5%, up 18.0 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 3,500+ Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.25%
The tracked probability fell to 37.25%, down 8.7 percentage points from 45.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 93.05%
The tracked probability rose to 93.05%, up 4.8 percentage points from 88.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners