This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
Current leader
68.5%
69%
2 outcomes
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 68.5%, down 3.1 percentage points from 71.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 72% → 69%
-3.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 68.5%, down 3.1 percentage points from 71.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 71.65% to 68.5% (-3.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T07:04:50.573Z to 2026-10-21T09:30:13.568Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 71.65% → 68.5%
Probability moved from 71.65% to 68.5% (-3.15 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 58.05% to 62.65% (+4.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T12:01:26.940Z to 2026-10-20T12:17:29.644Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 53.9% to 57.5% (+3.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T11:31:11.217Z to 2026-10-20T11:46:20.282Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44.45% to 52.25% (+7.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T10:32:00.001Z to 2026-10-20T10:47:08.687Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 55.55% to 47.55% (-8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T10:32:00.001Z to 2026-10-20T10:47:08.687Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 60.25% to 44.45% (-15.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T10:00:36.194Z to 2026-10-20T10:17:52.816Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 40.9% to 54.35% (+13.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T10:00:36.194Z to 2026-10-20T10:17:52.816Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 34.55% to 39.3% (+4.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:47:18.669Z to 2026-10-20T07:01:11.780Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (. This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps).
Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement.
If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate anno… — probability falls to 68.5%
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