Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 40% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 63%
The tracked probability fell to 63%, down 12.0 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 51.5%
The tracked probability fell to 51.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.05%
The tracked probability rose to 47.05%, up 3.3 percentage points from 43.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.95%
The tracked probability fell to 39.95%, down 6.6 percentage points from 46.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 23.05%
The tracked probability rose to 23.05%, up 20.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Matthew Golden have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 33%
The tracked probability fell to 33%, down 19.0 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.85%
The tracked probability fell to 38.85%, down 7.1 percentage points from 45.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026? — probability falls to 81.5%
The tracked probability fell to 81.5%, down 7.5 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 45.15%
The tracked probability fell to 45.15%, down 3.2 percentage points from 48.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8%
The tracked probability fell to 8%, down 9.8 percentage points from 17.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 12.0 percentage points from 15.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 10.3%
The tracked probability rose to 10.3%, up 7.5 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 60.9%
The tracked probability rose to 60.9%, up 3.3 percentage points from 57.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026? — probability rises to 85.5%
The tracked probability rose to 85.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 81.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? — probability rises to 83%
The tracked probability rose to 83%, up 4.5 percentage points from 78.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.6%
The tracked probability rose to 12.6%, up 9.6 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 60%
The tracked probability rose to 60%, up 4.0 percentage points from 56% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.2%
The tracked probability fell to 44.2%, down 3.3 percentage points from 47.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 65.6%
The tracked probability rose to 65.6%, up 11.0 percentage points from 54.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Spread: Chargers (-16.5) — probability falls to 1.6%
The tracked probability fell to 1.6%, down 48.4 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on October 18? — probability falls to 54%
The tracked probability fell to 54%, down 21.0 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 18?
- Plunge
2H Spread: Eagles (-16.5) — probability falls to 0%
The tracked probability fell to 0%, down 47.3 percentage points from 47.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Panthers vs. Eagles
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Istanbul be 8°C on October 18? — probability falls to 75%
The tracked probability fell to 75%, down 5.0 percentage points from 80% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Istanbul on October 18?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 10°C on October 18? — probability falls to 50.5%
The tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 30.5 percentage points from 81% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Madrid on October 18?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on October 18? — probability falls to 65%
The tracked probability fell to 65%, down 17.5 percentage points from 82.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 18?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? — probability falls to 76.8%
The tracked probability fell to 76.8%, down 3.4 percentage points from 80.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?
- Surge
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31? — probability rises to 83%
The tracked probability rose to 83%, up 8.0 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NATO downs another Russian drone by...?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 43.75%
The tracked probability fell to 43.75%, down 4.1 percentage points from 47.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 16.55%
The tracked probability rose to 16.55%, up 11.4 percentage points from 5.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.6%
The tracked probability rose to 12.6%, up 9.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 46.5 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 76%
The tracked probability rose to 76%, up 21.5 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.85%
The tracked probability rose to 33.85%, up 30.3 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.65%
The tracked probability fell to 3.65%, down 46.4 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 22.8%
The tracked probability rose to 22.8%, up 19.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Volume
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — probability holds at 1.15%
Probability remained at 1.15%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $693.3706 to $10,468.6256. The cause is not established.
Market: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 50.3%
The tracked probability rose to 50.3%, up 9.2 percentage points from 41.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Spread: Chargers (-17.5) — probability falls to 1.7%
The tracked probability fell to 1.7%, down 48.3 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Surge
Spread: Chargers (-16.5) — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.9 percentage points from 2.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 11.5%
The tracked probability fell to 11.5%, down 11.3 percentage points from 22.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
2H Spread: Eagles (-20.5) — probability falls to 0%
The tracked probability fell to 0%, down 47.4 percentage points from 47.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Panthers vs. Eagles
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on October 18? — probability rises to 97.1%
The tracked probability rose to 97.1%, up 59.5 percentage points from 37.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Mexico City on October 18?
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.8%
The tracked probability fell to 42.8%, down 5.1 percentage points from 47.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.25%
The tracked probability rose to 17.25%, up 13.9 percentage points from 3.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Volume
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? — probability holds at 1.85%
Probability remained at 1.85%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume was $1,448.91; its earlier value is unavailable. The cause is not established.
Market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.15%
The tracked probability rose to 12.15%, up 9.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Parma qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? — probability falls to 12.85%
The tracked probability fell to 12.85%, down 12.4 percentage points from 25.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Serie A: Team to qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 27%
The tracked probability rose to 27%, up 4.3 percentage points from 22.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns