Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 21.9%
The tracked probability fell to 21.9%, down 10.0 percentage points from 31.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 11.1%
The tracked probability rose to 11.1%, up 7.6 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 9.6 percentage points from 12.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.3 percentage points from 33.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.4 percentage points from 25.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 19? — probability rises to 51.5%
The tracked probability rose to 51.5%, up 25.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.6%
The tracked probability fell to 21.6%, down 23.3 percentage points from 44.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 20%
The tracked probability fell to 20%, down 3.4 percentage points from 23.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 59.45%
The tracked probability fell to 59.45%, down 6.0 percentage points from 65.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Surge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19? — probability rises to 17.5%
The tracked probability rose to 17.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 13% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.45%
The tracked probability fell to 40.45%, down 5.9 percentage points from 46.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 17.3 percentage points from 20.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.85%
The tracked probability rose to 17.85%, up 14.2 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.8%
The tracked probability rose to 16.8%, up 13.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 10°C on October 18? — probability rises to 99.45%
The tracked probability rose to 99.45%, up 50.0 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Madrid on October 18?
- Surge
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? — probability rises to 62.4%
The tracked probability rose to 62.4%, up 9.5 percentage points from 52.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 14°C on October 18? — probability rises to 99.35%
The tracked probability rose to 99.35%, up 49.9 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Milan on October 18?
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 19.1%
The tracked probability rose to 19.1%, up 16.0 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.05%
The tracked probability rose to 18.05%, up 15.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 19%
The tracked probability rose to 19%, up 5.5 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.95%
The tracked probability fell to 21.95%, down 23.8 percentage points from 45.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 22.1 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 8.2 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 31.5%
The tracked probability fell to 31.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.5%
The tracked probability fell to 22.5%, down 26.5 percentage points from 49.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 24.7 percentage points from 27.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 76.65%
The tracked probability rose to 76.65%, up 4.1 percentage points from 72.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 15.95%
The tracked probability fell to 15.95%, down 21.5 percentage points from 37.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.95%
The tracked probability fell to 44.95%, down 3.5 percentage points from 48.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on October 18? — probability rises to 98.5%
The tracked probability rose to 98.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 90% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Denver on October 18?
- Plunge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability falls to 1.6%
The tracked probability fell to 1.6%, down 7.1 percentage points from 8.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Surge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability rises to 26.5%
The tracked probability rose to 26.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 33.5%
The tracked probability rose to 33.5%, up 16.5 percentage points from 17% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 15.7 percentage points from 18.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 65%
The tracked probability rose to 65%, up 7.1 percentage points from 57.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Plunge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.65%
The tracked probability fell to 28.65%, down 20.7 percentage points from 49.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 in October? — probability rises to 54.05%
The tracked probability rose to 54.05%, up 4.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.5%
The tracked probability fell to 33.5%, down 14.2 percentage points from 47.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 82.15%
The tracked probability fell to 82.15%, down 4.1 percentage points from 86.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026? — probability rises to 78.5%
The tracked probability rose to 78.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 75.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 19.7 percentage points from 23.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 8.9 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October? — probability falls to 33.1%
The tracked probability fell to 33.1%, down 5.1 percentage points from 38.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 60.5%
The tracked probability rose to 60.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 39.7 percentage points from 43.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 18.15%
The tracked probability rose to 18.15%, up 15.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 61.35%
The tracked probability rose to 61.35%, up 11.0 percentage points from 50.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.55%
The tracked probability rose to 12.55%, up 9.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 40.5 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader