Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 4.9%
The tracked probability fell to 4.9%, down 22.0 percentage points from 26.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 14.2 percentage points from 17.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.1 percentage points from 45.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 15.65%
The tracked probability fell to 15.65%, down 6.3 percentage points from 21.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 42.4 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.8%
The tracked probability fell to 37.8%, down 11.8 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.05%
The tracked probability fell to 18.05%, down 30.4 percentage points from 48.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 40%
The tracked probability rose to 40%, up 8.5 percentage points from 31.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.5%
The tracked probability fell to 12.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 13.95%
The tracked probability rose to 13.95%, up 10.5 percentage points from 3.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.9%
The tracked probability rose to 27.9%, up 24.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 81.45%
The tracked probability rose to 81.45%, up 4.8 percentage points from 76.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.6%
The tracked probability fell to 8.6%, down 7.4 percentage points from 15.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.3%
The tracked probability rose to 45.3%, up 42.5 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.4 percentage points from 45.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 18? — probability rises to 98.55%
The tracked probability rose to 98.55%, up 3.6 percentage points from 95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 18?
- Surge
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B? — probability rises to 67.5%
The tracked probability rose to 67.5%, up 13.5 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above __?
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 10.95%
The tracked probability rose to 10.95%, up 7.4 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.45%
The tracked probability fell to 3.45%, down 19.8 percentage points from 23.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23.05%
The tracked probability rose to 23.05%, up 3.0 percentage points from 20% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 26.4%
The tracked probability rose to 26.4%, up 4.5 percentage points from 21.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Volume
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — probability holds at 2.05%
Probability remained at 2.05%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $3,048.3033 to $149,069.5962. The cause is not established.
Market: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.65%
The tracked probability rose to 18.65%, up 15.6 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Club Brugge reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final? — probability falls to 0.25%
The tracked probability fell to 0.25%, down 5.8 percentage points from 6.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to 2027 final
- Surge
Will Danni-Elle Townsend qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 54.25%
The tracked probability rose to 54.25%, up 3.1 percentage points from 51.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Women's)
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 15.6 percentage points from 18.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.8%
The tracked probability rose to 47.8%, up 36.5 percentage points from 11.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.95%
The tracked probability fell to 9.95%, down 10.5 percentage points from 20.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.45%
The tracked probability fell to 18.45%, down 30.6 percentage points from 49.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability rises to 86.3%
The tracked probability rose to 86.3%, up 4.1 percentage points from 82.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? — probability falls to 51.7%
The tracked probability fell to 51.7%, down 22.8 percentage points from 74.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 8.2 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on October 18? — probability falls to 1.65%
The tracked probability fell to 1.65%, down 3.4 percentage points from 5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Denver on October 18?
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 25.5%
The tracked probability rose to 25.5%, up 22.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability rises to 11.85%
The tracked probability rose to 11.85%, up 10.3 percentage points from 1.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 8.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 57.85%
The tracked probability fell to 57.85%, down 18.9 percentage points from 76.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 18%
The tracked probability fell to 18%, down 15.5 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Will Club Brugge reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final? — probability rises to 6.05%
The tracked probability rose to 6.05%, up 5.1 percentage points from 0.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to 2027 final
- Surge
Will the NBA announce an expansion team in Las Vegas by October 23, 2026? — probability rises to 14%
The tracked probability rose to 14%, up 3.0 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA to announce expansion team in Las Vegas by...?
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.25%
The tracked probability fell to 11.25%, down 17.4 percentage points from 28.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026? — probability falls to 84.5%
The tracked probability fell to 84.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 91% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.5%
The tracked probability fell to 20.5%, down 13.0 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.1%
The tracked probability rose to 49.1%, up 4.1 percentage points from 44.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? — probability rises to 16%
The tracked probability rose to 16%, up 4.0 percentage points from 12% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
- Plunge
Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? — probability falls to 94.6%
The tracked probability fell to 94.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from 98.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (October 20)
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 23.2%
The tracked probability rose to 23.2%, up 19.7 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B? — probability falls to 54%
The tracked probability fell to 54%, down 13.5 percentage points from 67.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above __?
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 63.5%
The tracked probability rose to 63.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026? — probability rises to 77.5%
The tracked probability rose to 77.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?