Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 2.75%
The tracked probability fell to 2.75%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Jayden Daniels: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 8.0 percentage points from 92% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 8.5 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Plunge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 62%
The tracked probability fell to 62%, down 8.5 percentage points from 70.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 29.5%
The tracked probability fell to 29.5%, down 11.6 percentage points from 41.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on October 19? — probability rises to 99.45%
The tracked probability rose to 99.45%, up 3.5 percentage points from 96% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in NYC on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026? — probability falls to 69.5%
The tracked probability fell to 69.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 73% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
- Surge
Kaelon Black: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 8.0 percentage points from 92% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 8.5 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 85%
The tracked probability rose to 85%, up 5.5 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on October 19? — probability falls to 91.5%
The tracked probability fell to 91.5%, down 4.6 percentage points from 96.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on October 19?
- Surge
Terry McLaurin: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 4.0 percentage points from 96% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.9 percentage points from 2.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 11.5%
The tracked probability rose to 11.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 8.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.8%
The tracked probability fell to 26.8%, down 6.4 percentage points from 33.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? — probability falls to 90.6%
The tracked probability fell to 90.6%, down 6.3 percentage points from 96.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 42.5%
The tracked probability rose to 42.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 36.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.2%
The tracked probability rose to 49.2%, up 46.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 23%
The tracked probability fell to 23%, down 6.5 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.25%
The tracked probability fell to 12.25%, down 6.7 percentage points from 18.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.65%
The tracked probability fell to 9.65%, down 7.7 percentage points from 17.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 65.35%
The tracked probability fell to 65.35%, down 5.8 percentage points from 71.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability rises to 28%
The tracked probability rose to 28%, up 14.5 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 48-49°F on October 19? — probability falls to 53%
The tracked probability fell to 53%, down 43.5 percentage points from 96.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Austin on October 19?
- Plunge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability falls to 63%
The tracked probability fell to 63%, down 8.0 percentage points from 71% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 33.9%
The tracked probability fell to 33.9%, down 8.7 percentage points from 42.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.15%
The tracked probability fell to 34.15%, down 7.8 percentage points from 41.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 23.95%
The tracked probability fell to 23.95%, down 7.6 percentage points from 31.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.35%
The tracked probability fell to 28.35%, down 7.7 percentage points from 36.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 8.55%
The tracked probability fell to 8.55%, down 4.3 percentage points from 12.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 14%
The tracked probability rose to 14%, up 5.0 percentage points from 9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.9%
The tracked probability fell to 39.9%, down 7.7 percentage points from 47.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability rises to 61.9%
The tracked probability rose to 61.9%, up 16.9 percentage points from 44.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.4%
The tracked probability fell to 24.4%, down 6.8 percentage points from 31.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 62.5%
The tracked probability rose to 62.5%, up 20.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 38.5%
The tracked probability fell to 38.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.25%
The tracked probability fell to 24.25%, down 6.9 percentage points from 31.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.85%
The tracked probability rose to 46.85%, up 10.6 percentage points from 36.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability falls to 4.15%
The tracked probability fell to 4.15%, down 6.6 percentage points from 10.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.7%
The tracked probability fell to 33.7%, down 6.7 percentage points from 40.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 8.9%
The tracked probability rose to 8.9%, up 4.1 percentage points from 4.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 24.5%
The tracked probability rose to 24.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 17% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 52%
The tracked probability rose to 52%, up 8.5 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 76.7%
The tracked probability rose to 76.7%, up 18.2 percentage points from 58.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 79.5%
The tracked probability fell to 79.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 — probability falls to 1.2%
The tracked probability fell to 1.2%, down 7.3 percentage points from 8.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.2%
The tracked probability fell to 33.2%, down 5.4 percentage points from 38.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader