Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.2%
The tracked probability rose to 46.2%, up 39.6 percentage points from 6.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 7.3 percentage points from 11.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 2.15%
The tracked probability fell to 2.15%, down 7.6 percentage points from 9.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 19.85%
The tracked probability fell to 19.85%, down 20.5 percentage points from 40.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 4.85%
The tracked probability rose to 4.85%, up 3.1 percentage points from 1.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.05%
The tracked probability rose to 48.05%, up 37.6 percentage points from 10.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 30.7%
The tracked probability rose to 30.7%, up 14.8 percentage points from 15.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 67.5%
The tracked probability rose to 67.5%, up 11.0 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 46.3%
The tracked probability rose to 46.3%, up 7.0 percentage points from 39.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.55%
The tracked probability fell to 39.55%, down 8.5 percentage points from 48.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.7%
The tracked probability fell to 37.7%, down 8.5 percentage points from 46.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31? — probability falls to 46.5%
The tracked probability fell to 46.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.05%
The tracked probability fell to 10.05%, down 8.5 percentage points from 18.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.2%
The tracked probability fell to 17.2%, down 8.6 percentage points from 25.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 20.0 percentage points from 22.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 73.5%
The tracked probability rose to 73.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Surge
Will Davante Adams have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 50.5%
The tracked probability rose to 50.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Davante Adams 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 20? — probability falls to 89.25%
The tracked probability fell to 89.25%, down 8.1 percentage points from 97.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 20?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 7.5%
The tracked probability fell to 7.5%, down 16.5 percentage points from 24% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 22.95%
The tracked probability fell to 22.95%, down 22.3 percentage points from 45.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 77%
The tracked probability fell to 77%, down 8.0 percentage points from 85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 56.95%
The tracked probability rose to 56.95%, up 3.9 percentage points from 53.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 82.7%
The tracked probability rose to 82.7%, up 7.4 percentage points from 75.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 47.5%
The tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 10.0 percentage points from 37.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 21.5%
The tracked probability rose to 21.5%, up 13.5 percentage points from 8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? — probability falls to 70.5%
The tracked probability fell to 70.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
- Surge
Will Davante Adams have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 47.5%
The tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 20.5 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Davante Adams 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 25.5 percentage points from 67% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 26.2%
The tracked probability rose to 26.2%, up 5.8 percentage points from 20.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will Dalton Kincaid finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 32%
The tracked probability fell to 32%, down 5.0 percentage points from 37% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.75%
The tracked probability fell to 35.75%, down 5.8 percentage points from 41.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.5%
The tracked probability rose to 28.5%, up 11.7 percentage points from 16.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 57.45%
The tracked probability rose to 57.45%, up 3.7 percentage points from 53.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 24%
The tracked probability rose to 24%, up 16.0 percentage points from 8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? — probability falls to 87%
The tracked probability fell to 87%, down 6.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.7%
The tracked probability fell to 6.7%, down 5.9 percentage points from 12.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7.25%
The tracked probability fell to 7.25%, down 5.9 percentage points from 13.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.2 percentage points from 50.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.6%
The tracked probability fell to 6.6%, down 6.9 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 61.6%
The tracked probability fell to 61.6%, down 4.9 percentage points from 66.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.3%
The tracked probability fell to 11.3%, down 6.9 percentage points from 18.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.75%
The tracked probability fell to 9.75%, down 6.8 percentage points from 16.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 40.35%
The tracked probability rose to 40.35%, up 5.1 percentage points from 35.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.85%
The tracked probability rose to 24.85%, up 12.5 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.45%
The tracked probability fell to 10.45%, down 6.9 percentage points from 17.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 88.2%
The tracked probability rose to 88.2%, up 9.8 percentage points from 78.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 48-49°F on October 19? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 49.8 percentage points from 50.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Austin on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 65.7%
The tracked probability fell to 65.7%, down 5.5 percentage points from 71.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Surge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.05%
The tracked probability rose to 48.05%, up 43.0 percentage points from 5.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.2%
The tracked probability rose to 46.2%, up 43.5 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader