Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 37.5%
The tracked probability fell to 37.5%, down 7.5 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability falls to 72.5%
The tracked probability fell to 72.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Plunge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability falls to 52%
The tracked probability fell to 52%, down 14.0 percentage points from 66% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026? — probability rises to 80%
The tracked probability rose to 80%, up 3.5 percentage points from 76.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.15%
The tracked probability fell to 38.15%, down 7.8 percentage points from 45.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 66.95%
The tracked probability rose to 66.95%, up 4.8 percentage points from 62.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Macklin Celebrini record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 88%
The tracked probability fell to 88%, down 4.5 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 48.5%
The tracked probability fell to 48.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.15%
The tracked probability fell to 38.15%, down 7.8 percentage points from 45.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.6%
The tracked probability fell to 38.6%, down 7.7 percentage points from 46.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026? — probability falls to 89.5%
The tracked probability fell to 89.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 93% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 19°C on October 20? — probability falls to 77.5%
The tracked probability fell to 77.5%, down 14.0 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 20?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.5%
The tracked probability fell to 38.5%, down 7.7 percentage points from 46.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 64.85%
The tracked probability fell to 64.85%, down 3.2 percentage points from 68.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Surge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 43.4%
The tracked probability rose to 43.4%, up 39.4 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 41.55%
The tracked probability rose to 41.55%, up 39.4 percentage points from 2.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 35%
The tracked probability rose to 35%, up 15.1 percentage points from 19.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above $360M? — probability rises to 79%
The tracked probability rose to 79%, up 4.0 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 12.5 percentage points from 24.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.55%
The tracked probability fell to 41.55%, down 6.5 percentage points from 48.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? — probability rises to 57.35%
The tracked probability rose to 57.35%, up 7.2 percentage points from 50.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability rises to 18%
The tracked probability rose to 18%, up 3.5 percentage points from 14.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 63%
The tracked probability fell to 63%, down 4.5 percentage points from 67.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.75%
The tracked probability fell to 32.75%, down 6.8 percentage points from 39.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 19? — probability rises to 96.95%
The tracked probability rose to 96.95%, up 9.5 percentage points from 87.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in London on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.9%
The tracked probability fell to 29.9%, down 7.8 percentage points from 37.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.95%
The tracked probability rose to 47.95%, up 37.9 percentage points from 10.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.5%
The tracked probability fell to 9.5%, down 7.7 percentage points from 17.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 16.65%
The tracked probability fell to 16.65%, down 8.0 percentage points from 24.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 70.5%
The tracked probability fell to 70.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 73.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 150 million views on week 1? — probability falls to 78.2%
The tracked probability fell to 78.2%, down 4.1 percentage points from 82.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets)
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 8.5%
The tracked probability fell to 8.5%, down 14.5 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4.55%
The tracked probability fell to 4.55%, down 12.4 percentage points from 16.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 7.5%
The tracked probability fell to 7.5%, down 16.5 percentage points from 24% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 73.5%
The tracked probability rose to 73.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 20? — probability falls to 89.25%
The tracked probability fell to 89.25%, down 8.1 percentage points from 97.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 20?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 20? — probability falls to 49.95%
The tracked probability fell to 49.95%, down 30.0 percentage points from 79.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Wellington on October 20?
- Plunge
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B? — probability falls to 21%
The tracked probability fell to 21%, down 4.5 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above __?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 50.85%
The tracked probability fell to 50.85%, down 6.1 percentage points from 56.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 77.15%
The tracked probability fell to 77.15%, down 5.5 percentage points from 82.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? — probability rises to 74.5%
The tracked probability rose to 74.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 70.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 66%
The tracked probability rose to 66%, up 24.5 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 30%
The tracked probability rose to 30%, up 3.8 percentage points from 26.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026? — probability falls to 76.5%
The tracked probability fell to 76.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 81% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 3.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- Surge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.95%
The tracked probability rose to 45.95%, up 10.2 percentage points from 35.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 62.15%
The tracked probability rose to 62.15%, up 4.7 percentage points from 57.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 54%
The tracked probability rose to 54%, up 3.5 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 in October? — probability rises to 45.25%
The tracked probability rose to 45.25%, up 4.5 percentage points from 40.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.95%
The tracked probability rose to 45.95%, up 39.3 percentage points from 6.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader