Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.6%
The tracked probability fell to 18.6%, down 5.9 percentage points from 24.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 3°C on October 19? — probability rises to 96.5%
The tracked probability rose to 96.5%, up 20.9 percentage points from 75.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25.75%
The tracked probability fell to 25.75%, down 5.9 percentage points from 31.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 22.95%
The tracked probability fell to 22.95%, down 22.3 percentage points from 45.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.2 percentage points from 50.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 16.55%
The tracked probability fell to 16.55%, down 5.9 percentage points from 22.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 20? — probability falls to 79.95%
The tracked probability fell to 79.95%, down 14.5 percentage points from 94.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Wellington on October 20?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 20? — probability rises to 98.5%
The tracked probability rose to 98.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 93% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Busan on October 20?
- Plunge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 20, 2026 be 6.1 or more? — probability falls to 74.65%
The tracked probability fell to 74.65%, down 22.5 percentage points from 97.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 20, 2026?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 20? — probability rises to 97.05%
The tracked probability rose to 97.05%, up 5.0 percentage points from 92% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Taipei on October 20?
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 48.15%
The tracked probability rose to 48.15%, up 14.2 percentage points from 33.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability rises to 12.5%
The tracked probability rose to 12.5%, up 8.6 percentage points from 3.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 53.05%
The tracked probability fell to 53.05%, down 3.1 percentage points from 56.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 75.35%
The tracked probability fell to 75.35%, down 6.6 percentage points from 81.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 17.5%
The tracked probability fell to 17.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 67%
The tracked probability rose to 67%, up 24.0 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 3.4%
The tracked probability fell to 3.4%, down 3.8 percentage points from 7.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will Dalton Kincaid finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 37%
The tracked probability rose to 37%, up 5.0 percentage points from 32% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.55%
The tracked probability fell to 41.55%, down 6.6 percentage points from 48.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 16.8%
The tracked probability fell to 16.8%, down 11.7 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability falls to 53.75%
The tracked probability fell to 53.75%, down 32.5 percentage points from 86.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 48.5%
The tracked probability fell to 48.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? — probability rises to 93.5%
The tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 83% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.6%
The tracked probability fell to 12.6%, down 7.0 percentage points from 19.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 13.1%
The tracked probability fell to 13.1%, down 7.1 percentage points from 20.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 58%
The tracked probability rose to 58%, up 7.0 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 13.5%
The tracked probability fell to 13.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 19.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.2%
The tracked probability fell to 18.2%, down 5.8 percentage points from 24.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Davante Adams have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 14.5%
The tracked probability rose to 14.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 10% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 1,000+ Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 35.25%
The tracked probability rose to 35.25%, up 11.5 percentage points from 23.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 12.2 percentage points from 24.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 57.5%
The tracked probability rose to 57.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 1.5%
The tracked probability fell to 1.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 5.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.35%
The tracked probability fell to 17.35%, down 6.0 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability falls to 13.5%
The tracked probability fell to 13.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 18% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 76.7%
The tracked probability rose to 76.7%, up 18.2 percentage points from 58.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will "Please" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 45.5%
The tracked probability fell to 45.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.1%
The tracked probability fell to 5.1%, down 6.0 percentage points from 11.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 19? — probability falls to 87.5%
The tracked probability fell to 87.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 96.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in London on October 19?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability falls to 43.5%
The tracked probability fell to 43.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 2.75%
The tracked probability fell to 2.75%, down 6.0 percentage points from 8.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will a transfer restriction on Manchester City be applied by the 2027 summer transfer window? — probability falls to 32.35%
The tracked probability fell to 32.35%, down 17.3 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Man City to face transfer restriction by 2027 summer transfer window?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.55%
The tracked probability fell to 24.55%, down 6.0 percentage points from 30.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 3°C on October 19? — probability falls to 75.6%
The tracked probability fell to 75.6%, down 24.4 percentage points from 99.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.7%
The tracked probability fell to 31.7%, down 5.9 percentage points from 37.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 45.25%
The tracked probability rose to 45.25%, up 42.4 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 69%
The tracked probability fell to 69%, down 4.0 percentage points from 73% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50.2%
The tracked probability rose to 50.2%, up 47.2 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 23.35%
The tracked probability fell to 23.35%, down 8.9 percentage points from 32.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.5%
The tracked probability fell to 19.5%, down 8.9 percentage points from 28.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader