Living market coverage

Prediction-market movement explanations

The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.

  1. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Bitcoin hit in August?

    Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August in What price will Bitcoin hit in August market slips: Yes odds 10.5% → 5.5%

    Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August moved lower from 10.5% to 5.5% (-5.0 points) between 2026-08-17T17:03:05.420Z and 2026-08-18T17:03:05.420Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  2. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Bitcoin hit in August?

    Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August in What price will Bitcoin hit in August market: Yes odds 70.2% → 47.5%

    Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August moved lower from 70.2% to 47.5% (-22.7 points) between 2026-08-17T12:18:05.471Z and 2026-08-18T17:03:05.421Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  3. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Bitcoin hit in August?

    Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August in What price will Bitcoin hit in August market drops: Yes odds 61.9% → 47.5%

    Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August moved lower from 61.9% to 47.5% (-14.4 points) between 2026-08-17T17:00:16.000Z and 2026-08-18T17:03:05.421Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  4. Unexplained MoveLoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group

    Game 3 Any Player Quadra Kill odds drop: 53% → 0.5%

    Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill moved lower from 53.0% to 0.5% (-52.5 points) between 2026-08-17T11:33:05.432Z and 2026-08-18T11:33:05.432Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  5. Unexplained MoveLoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group

    Game 3 Any Player Penta Kill odds drop: 50% → 0.5%

    Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill moved lower from 50.0% to 0.5% (-49.5 points) between 2026-08-17T11:33:05.432Z and 2026-08-18T11:33:05.432Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  6. Unexplained MoveLoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group

    Game 3 Odd/Even total kills odds jump: 50% → 99.5%

    Odd moved higher from 50.0% to 99.5% (+49.5 points) between 2026-08-17T11:33:05.432Z and 2026-08-18T11:33:05.432Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  7. Unexplained MoveLoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Team Phoenix (BO5) - TCL Playoffs

    Game 5: Both Teams Slay a Dragon in LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Team Phoenix (BO5) market: Yes odds 61% → 67%

    Game 5: Both Teams Slay a Dragon moved higher from 61.0% to 67.0% (+6.0 points) between 2026-08-18T10:56:09.590Z and 2026-08-18T11:56:04.288Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  8. Unexplained MoveLoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group

    Game 2 Any Player Quadra Kill odds jump: 26% → 50%

    Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill moved higher from 26.0% to 50.0% (+24.0 points) between 2026-08-17T11:03:05.463Z and 2026-08-18T11:03:05.463Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  9. Unexplained MoveLoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group

    Game 2 Any Player Penta Kill odds jump: 25% → 50%

    Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill moved higher from 25.0% to 50.0% (+25.0 points) between 2026-08-17T11:03:05.463Z and 2026-08-18T11:03:05.463Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  10. Unexplained MoveLoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group

    Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon in LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports: Yes odds 38.5% → 50%

    Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon moved higher from 38.5% to 50.0% (+11.5 points) between 2026-08-17T11:03:05.464Z and 2026-08-18T11:03:05.464Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  11. Unexplained MoveBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 18 in Bitcoin above ___ on August 18: Yes odds 50% → 100%

    the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 18 moved higher from 50.0% to 100.0% (+50.0 points) between 2026-08-11T16:03:05.719Z and 2026-08-18T11:03:05.465Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  12. Unexplained MoveLoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs

    LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs slips: Nongshim Red Force odds 40.5% → 34.5%

    Nongshim Red Force moved lower from 40.5% to 34.5% (-6.0 points) between 2026-08-18T09:33:05.416Z and 2026-08-18T09:48:05.411Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  13. Unexplained MoveBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 18 in Bitcoin above ___ on August 18: Yes odds 26.5% → 75.5%

    the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 18 moved higher from 26.5% to 75.5% (+49.0 points) between 2026-08-17T08:48:05.409Z and 2026-08-18T08:48:05.409Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  14. Unexplained MoveWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

    WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August in What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in: Yes odds 13.5% → 19%

    WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August moved higher from 13.5% to 19.0% (+5.5 points) between 2026-08-17T08:03:05.394Z and 2026-08-18T08:03:05.394Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  15. Odds PlungeWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

    WTI $65 August low odds plunge as crude weakens on demand concerns

    The chance of WTI hitting $65 in August fell sharply from 7.0% to 1.85% between August 12 and August 18, 2026. Reuters reported oil settling down 2% on a weak demand outlook and a hefty U.S. crude build, which may have coincided with the move.

  16. Unexplained MoveWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

    WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August in What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in: Yes odds 39% → 20.5%

    WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August moved lower from 39.0% to 20.5% (-18.5 points) between 2026-08-17T08:00:14.000Z and 2026-08-18T08:03:05.395Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  17. Unexplained MoveBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 18 in Bitcoin above ___ on August 18: Yes odds 35% → 74.5%

    the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 18 moved higher from 35.0% to 74.5% (+39.5 points) between 2026-08-17T07:03:05.418Z and 2026-08-18T07:03:05.418Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  18. Sustained DriftWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

    WTI $70-low August odds fall as crude stays firm

    The chance of WTI hitting the August $70-low threshold dropped from 18.5% to 5.95% between August 12, 2026 and August 18, 2026, as near-term crude reporting stayed firmer. The specific catalyst for the move was not confirmed.

  19. Odds PlungeWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

    WTI $70-low August market plunges after crude firms into the $85 range

    The chance that WTI would dip to $70 in August fell sharply over the last 24 hours, with the market moving as NY crude climbed into the $85 range in late trading coverage. The specific catalyst for the drop is not confirmed, but it appears consistent with firmer crude sentiment.

  20. News LinkedBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    Bitcoin above $64K drew steady yes-side interest through the morning

    Bitcoin’s price moved back above $64,000 on August 18, and the market’s yes probability drifted from 59.5% to 68.5% between 02:48 UTC and 06:03 UTC. The sourced price move may have coincided with that broader BTC strength, but no single catalyst is confirmed here.

  21. Unexplained MoveDetroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Player Props

    Brandon Lowe home-run odds slip: 88% → 81.5%

    Under moved lower from 88.0% to 81.5% (-6.5 points) between 2026-08-18T01:48:03.957Z and 2026-08-18T05:56:08.101Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  22. Unexplained MoveBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 18 in Bitcoin above ___ on August 18: Yes odds 50% → 99.2%

    the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 18 moved higher from 50.0% to 99.2% (+49.2 points) between 2026-08-11T16:03:05.719Z and 2026-08-18T05:03:05.392Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  23. News LinkedBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    Bitcoin climbs above $64K as Fed-minute anticipation coincides with odds surge

    Bitcoin moved back above $64,000 on August 18, 2026, coinciding with a sharp rise in the market’s yes probability for the above-$64K outcome. News coverage pointed to macro support and traders waiting on Fed minutes, but the price move itself is the confirmed development.

  24. Unexplained MoveBrazil Série A: Winner

    Flamengo in Brazil Série A: market rises: Yes odds 45.5% → 51.5%

    Flamengo moved higher from 45.5% to 51.5% (+6.0 points) between 2026-08-17T04:56:04.176Z and 2026-08-18T04:56:04.176Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  25. Unexplained MovePeru Liga 1: Winner

    ADT in Peru Liga 1: market rises: Yes odds 37% → 45%

    ADT moved higher from 37.0% to 45.0% (+8.0 points) between 2026-08-17T04:56:04.169Z and 2026-08-18T04:56:04.169Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  26. Unexplained MoveDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries

    Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 in Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries market jumps: Yes odds 32% → 99.5%

    Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 moved higher from 32.0% to 99.5% (+67.5 points) between 2026-08-17T03:00:16.000Z and 2026-08-18T03:48:05.387Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  27. Unexplained MoveDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries

    Cecilia Zandalasini: Rebounds O/U 2.5 in Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries market: Yes odds 27.5% → 50%

    Cecilia Zandalasini: Rebounds O/U 2.5 moved higher from 27.5% to 50.0% (+22.5 points) between 2026-08-17T04:03:05.483Z and 2026-08-18T04:03:05.483Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  28. Odds SurgeDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries

    Veronica Burton assists prop surged into the Dallas-Wings Valkyries preview window

    Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 6.5 jumped from 28.5% Yes to 50.0% Yes over the Aug. 17-18 window. The move coincided with game previews, but no direct catalyst is confirmed in the supplied sources.

  29. Unexplained MoveDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries

    Jessica Shepard Assists odds rise: 43.2% → 50.1%

    Jessica Shepard: Assists O/U 4.5 moved higher from 43.2% to 50.1% (+6.9 points) between 2026-08-17T04:03:05.484Z and 2026-08-18T04:03:05.484Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  30. Unexplained MoveDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries

    Gabby Williams Assists odds jump: 32% → 50%

    Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 moved higher from 32.0% to 50.0% (+18.0 points) between 2026-08-17T04:03:05.484Z and 2026-08-18T04:03:05.484Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  31. Unexplained MoveDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries

    Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) jumps: Golden State Valkyries odds 49.5% → 73%

    Golden State Valkyries moved higher from 49.5% to 73.0% (+23.5 points) between 2026-08-17T04:03:05.484Z and 2026-08-18T04:03:05.484Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  32. Unexplained MoveDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries

    Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) rises: Golden State Valkyries odds 44.5% → 53%

    Golden State Valkyries moved higher from 44.5% to 53.0% (+8.5 points) between 2026-08-17T04:03:05.484Z and 2026-08-18T04:03:05.484Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  33. Odds SurgeDallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries

    Gabby Williams points prop surged on Valkyries-Wings preview day

    Gabby Williams: Points O/U 12.5 jumped from 36.0% to 99.45% Yes between Aug. 17 and Aug. 18, 2026. The move coincided with an Aug. 17 Bleacher Nation preview, but no direct catalyst is confirmed in the source.

  34. Unexplained MoveUEFA EURO 2028: Winner

    Armenia in UEFA EURO : market rises: Yes odds 0.1% → 5.5%

    Armenia moved higher from 0.1% to 5.5% (+5.5 points) between 2026-08-17T02:56:10.944Z and 2026-08-18T02:56:10.944Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  35. News LinkedBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    Bitcoin held above $64,000 as traders watched Fed minutes and macro tone

    Bitcoin moved back above $64,000 as traders waited for the Fed minutes, with several reports describing a broader BTC surge and buyers returning after a weekly low. The market’s probability of finishing above $64K jumped sharply over the same 24-hour window.

  36. Unexplained MoveBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18 in Bitcoin above ___ on August 18: Yes odds 50% → 1.9%

    the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18 moved lower from 50.0% to 1.9% (-48.1 points) between 2026-08-11T16:03:05.719Z and 2026-08-18T01:33:05.521Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  37. Unexplained MoveBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 18 in Bitcoin above ___ on August 18: Yes odds 50% → 0.1%

    the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 18 moved lower from 50.0% to 0.1% (-49.9 points) between 2026-08-11T16:03:05.720Z and 2026-08-18T01:33:05.521Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  38. Unexplained MoveBitcoin above ___ on August 18?

    the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 18 in Bitcoin above ___ on August 18 market: Yes odds 50% → 0%

    the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 18 moved lower from 50.0% to 0.0% (-50.0 points) between 2026-08-11T16:03:05.720Z and 2026-08-18T01:33:05.521Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  39. Unexplained MoveLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies - Player Props

    Andy Pages home-run odds jump: 50.5% → 98.9%

    Under moved higher from 50.5% to 98.9% (+48.4 points) between 2026-08-18T00:48:04.347Z and 2026-08-18T01:03:03.899Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  40. Unexplained MoveLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies - Player Props

    Andy Pages home-run odds drop: 49.5% → 1.1%

    Over moved lower from 49.5% to 1.1% (-48.4 points) between 2026-08-18T00:48:04.347Z and 2026-08-18T01:03:03.899Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  41. Unexplained MoveLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies - Player Props

    Cole Carrigg home-run odds drop: 49.5% → 0.8%

    Over moved lower from 49.5% to 0.8% (-48.7 points) between 2026-08-18T00:48:04.347Z and 2026-08-18T01:03:03.899Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  42. Unexplained MoveLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies - Player Props

    Freddie Freeman home-run odds drop: 49.5% → 0.9%

    Over moved lower from 49.5% to 0.9% (-48.5 points) between 2026-08-18T00:48:04.347Z and 2026-08-18T01:03:03.899Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  43. Trend ReversalBaltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays

    Orioles spread price reversed sharply late on Aug. 17

    Baltimore Orioles’ spread market flipped higher over a 30-minute window late on Aug. 17, with no confirmed game-day catalyst in the supplied sources. The move may reflect shifting market sentiment rather than a verified on-field development.

  44. Odds SurgeBaltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays

    Orioles spread price surged over 24 hours before Aug. 17 matchup

    Baltimore Orioles’ spread price for the Aug. 17 game against Tampa Bay rose from 0.195 to 0.335, a 0.14 move over the 24-hour window starting 2026-08-17T00:03:05.550Z. The available sources do not confirm a specific on-field trigger.

  45. Odds PlungeWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

    WTI $110 August odds fell as crude commentary stayed mixed and no single catalyst was confirmed

    Odds on WTI reaching $110 in August slipped from 5.35% to 2.25% between August 12 and August 18, 2026. The move coincided with broader oil coverage on firmer crude, weak-demand concerns, and Middle East supply risk, but no single confirmed trigger was identified for this specific market.

  46. Odds SurgeCincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur

    Minaur price surges as Cincinnati coverage points to Fery test

    Alex de Minaur’s Set 2 winner price jumped from 0.70 to 0.9995 between 2026-08-17T22:18:05.480Z and 2026-08-17T23:03:05.413Z. Cincinnati coverage around Arthur Fery’s run and de Minaur’s next-up matchup may have coincided with the move, but the exact trigger is not confirmed.

  47. Unexplained MoveCincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur

    Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 drops: Over 2.5 odds 30.5% → 0.1%

    Over 2.5 moved lower from 30.5% to 0.1% (-30.4 points) between 2026-08-17T22:18:05.480Z and 2026-08-17T23:03:05.414Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  48. Unexplained MoveCincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur

    Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 jumps: Under 2.5 odds 69.5% → 100%

    Under 2.5 moved higher from 69.5% to 100.0% (+30.5 points) between 2026-08-17T22:18:05.480Z and 2026-08-17T23:03:05.414Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  49. Unexplained MoveCincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur

    Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 drops: Over 2.5 odds 35% → 0.1%

    Over 2.5 moved lower from 35.0% to 0.1% (-34.9 points) between 2026-08-16T23:03:05.414Z and 2026-08-17T23:03:05.414Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  50. Unexplained MoveCincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur

    Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) jumps: Minaur odds 64% → 100%

    Minaur moved higher from 64.0% to 100.0% (+36.0 points) between 2026-08-17T22:18:05.481Z and 2026-08-17T23:03:05.414Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.