Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? — probability falls to 42.7%
The tracked probability fell to 42.7%, down 14.8 percentage points from 57.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 21?
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 62.7%
The tracked probability rose to 62.7%, up 10.9 percentage points from 51.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 3°C on October 19? — probability falls to 64.9%
The tracked probability fell to 64.9%, down 31.6 percentage points from 96.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 19?
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 29.95%
The tracked probability rose to 29.95%, up 13.5 percentage points from 16.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability rises to 43.5%
The tracked probability rose to 43.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 37.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Clayface" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 38.3%
The tracked probability rose to 38.3%, up 13.3 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 40.35%
The tracked probability rose to 40.35%, up 14.3 percentage points from 26.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 28.75%
The tracked probability rose to 28.75%, up 15.4 percentage points from 13.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability rises to 79%
The tracked probability rose to 79%, up 8.0 percentage points from 71% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 37.75%
The tracked probability rose to 37.75%, up 12.8 percentage points from 24.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 19°C on October 20? — probability falls to 50%
The tracked probability fell to 50%, down 5.0 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 20?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 8.5%
The tracked probability fell to 8.5%, down 11.5 percentage points from 20% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 5.5 — probability rises to 46.8%
Probability moved from 2.65% to 46.8%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume was $1,251.8356; its earlier value is unavailable. The cause is not established.
Market: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 43.8%
The tracked probability rose to 43.8%, up 22.7 percentage points from 21.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will OXY play for Sentinels in 2027? — probability falls to 77.2%
The tracked probability fell to 77.2%, down 10.2 percentage points from 87.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability rises to 58.5%
The tracked probability rose to 58.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Volume
Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0? — probability rises to 100%
Probability moved from 99.45% to 100%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $161.8304 to $2,216.8244. The cause is not established.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
- Surge
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? — probability rises to 95.4%
The tracked probability rose to 95.4%, up 3.6 percentage points from 91.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 13%
The tracked probability fell to 13%, down 11.0 percentage points from 24% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October? — probability rises to 39.5%
The tracked probability rose to 39.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 30.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 10.2%
The tracked probability rose to 10.2%, up 7.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 53.5%
The tracked probability rose to 53.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 79%
The tracked probability rose to 79%, up 11.5 percentage points from 67.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Volume
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability holds at 63%
Probability remained at 63%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $466.362 to $1,116.0543. The cause is not established.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 85.5%
The tracked probability rose to 85.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 77% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Plunge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 5.0 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October? — probability falls to 50.5%
The tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 19? — probability rises to 92.4%
The tracked probability rose to 92.4%, up 10.5 percentage points from 81.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 19?
- Surge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability rises to 12.25%
The tracked probability rose to 12.25%, up 3.9 percentage points from 8.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 10.65%
The tracked probability rose to 10.65%, up 7.6 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Carnell Tate have 1,174.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 16.5%
The tracked probability rose to 16.5%, up 10.0 percentage points from 6.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Carnell Tate 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability rises to 10%
The tracked probability rose to 10%, up 5.8 percentage points from 4.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 24.05%
The tracked probability fell to 24.05%, down 5.3 percentage points from 29.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 63% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Surge
Will Justin Jefferson finish as a top-12 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 86%
The tracked probability rose to 86%, up 20.5 percentage points from 65.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Connor Bedard record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 40.5%
The tracked probability fell to 40.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 58.45%
The tracked probability fell to 58.45%, down 7.3 percentage points from 65.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 25.35%
The tracked probability fell to 25.35%, down 24.6 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Volume
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026? — probability rises to 95.45%
Probability moved from 92.5% to 95.45%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $720.1332 to $1,883.9032. The cause is not established.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 15.9%
The tracked probability fell to 15.9%, down 29.6 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 5.5%
The tracked probability fell to 5.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 10.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Parma qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? — probability falls to 2%
Probability moved from 6.35% to 2%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume was $1,344.4103; its earlier value is unavailable. The cause is not established.
Market: Serie A: Team to qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League
- Surge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability rises to 71.9%
The tracked probability rose to 71.9%, up 5.0 percentage points from 66.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 82.1%
The tracked probability rose to 82.1%, up 5.7 percentage points from 76.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 44%
The tracked probability rose to 44%, up 5.0 percentage points from 39% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha: O/U 7.5 — probability falls to 0%
Probability moved from 4.25% to 0%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $3,875.4906 to $10,022.8805. The cause is not established.
Market: Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha - More Markets
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 83.5%
The tracked probability rose to 83.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Jordan Love have 3,799.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 62%
The tracked probability fell to 62%, down 3.5 percentage points from 65.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jordan Love 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 56.5%
The tracked probability rose to 56.5%, up 15.5 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Brussels, Belgium Singles? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: ATP Tennis: Brussels, Belgium Singles Winner