Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Volume
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? — probability falls to 34.5%
Probability moved from 36.5% to 34.5%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $334.2283 to $1,547.7418. The cause is not established.
Market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- Plunge
Will Jacob Fearnley win the 2026 Brussels, Belgium Singles? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: ATP Tennis: Brussels, Belgium Singles Winner
- Plunge
Will Ezequiel Duran win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 16.15%
The tracked probability fell to 16.15%, down 10.8 percentage points from 26.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 25.5%
The tracked probability fell to 25.5%, down 8.0 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability falls to 43%
The tracked probability fell to 43%, down 11.0 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Plunge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 18.45%
The tracked probability fell to 18.45%, down 26.6 percentage points from 45.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.8%
The tracked probability rose to 24.8%, up 21.8 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 41.95%
The tracked probability rose to 41.95%, up 38.4 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25%
The tracked probability fell to 25%, down 19.2 percentage points from 44.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 37.0 percentage points from 49.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 33.9%
The tracked probability fell to 33.9%, down 14.1 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 61%
The tracked probability rose to 61%, up 17.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 77%
The tracked probability fell to 77%, down 7.0 percentage points from 84% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 21.2%
The tracked probability rose to 21.2%, up 18.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026? — probability falls to 28%
The tracked probability fell to 28%, down 9.0 percentage points from 37% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026? — probability falls to 80%
The tracked probability fell to 80%, down 4.0 percentage points from 84% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Terry McLaurin have 549.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 7.7%
The tracked probability fell to 7.7%, down 17.5 percentage points from 25.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Terry McLaurin 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 22.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 32.85%
The tracked probability fell to 32.85%, down 8.0 percentage points from 40.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25.15%
The tracked probability fell to 25.15%, down 24.8 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 11.8%
The tracked probability rose to 11.8%, up 9.0 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 16.15%
The tracked probability fell to 16.15%, down 33.5 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 11.1%
The tracked probability rose to 11.1%, up 7.6 percentage points from 3.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 4.3%
The tracked probability fell to 4.3%, down 3.6 percentage points from 7.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.1%
The tracked probability rose to 12.1%, up 9.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Sporting Cristal be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.4%
The tracked probability rose to 45.4%, up 42.4 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 20? — probability falls to 89.95%
The tracked probability fell to 89.95%, down 8.1 percentage points from 98% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 20?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20? — probability rises to 75%
The tracked probability rose to 75%, up 4.3 percentage points from 70.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 20?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 20? — probability rises to 96.5%
The tracked probability rose to 96.5%, up 5.3 percentage points from 91.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Beijing on October 20?
- Plunge
Wadi Degla SC vs. National Bank of Egypt Club: National Bank of Egypt Club O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 4.1%
The tracked probability fell to 4.1%, down 13.4 percentage points from 17.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Wadi Degla SC vs. National Bank of Egypt Club - More Markets
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 26.05%
The tracked probability rose to 26.05%, up 23.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 21.15%
The tracked probability rose to 21.15%, up 18.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 41%
The tracked probability rose to 41%, up 6.0 percentage points from 35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 20%
The tracked probability rose to 20%, up 4.5 percentage points from 15.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 17.4 percentage points from 7.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 16.4%
The tracked probability fell to 16.4%, down 8.1 percentage points from 24.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 63%
The tracked probability rose to 63%, up 7.1 percentage points from 55.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 26.9 percentage points from 23.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 19.4%
The tracked probability rose to 19.4%, up 8.8 percentage points from 10.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026? — probability rises to 87.5%
The tracked probability rose to 87.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability falls to 51.85%
The tracked probability fell to 51.85%, down 32.3 percentage points from 84.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 10.9 percentage points from 13.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability falls to 48%
The tracked probability fell to 48%, down 3.0 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability rises to 54%
The tracked probability rose to 54%, up 11.5 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 43.5%
The tracked probability rose to 43.5%, up 34.0 percentage points from 9.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs