Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 20? — probability falls to 94.95%
The tracked probability fell to 94.95%, down 3.7 percentage points from 98.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Beijing on October 20?
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.3%
The tracked probability rose to 49.3%, up 24.6 percentage points from 24.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.1%
The tracked probability fell to 12.1%, down 14.9 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 24.8 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 23.0 percentage points from 22.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 22.75%
The tracked probability rose to 22.75%, up 11.2 percentage points from 11.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Helsingborgs IF be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability falls to 5%
The tracked probability fell to 5%, down 40.0 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? — probability falls to 38.45%
The tracked probability fell to 38.45%, down 8.7 percentage points from 47.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 21?
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 95.05%
The tracked probability rose to 95.05%, up 29.3 percentage points from 65.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Gavin Williams lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in strikeouts? — probability falls to 35.5%
The tracked probability fell to 35.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB Postseason: Strikeout Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 37.2 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.1%
The tracked probability rose to 24.1%, up 12.0 percentage points from 12.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
CD Guadalajara vs. Club Necaxa: CD Guadalajara O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 3.2%
The tracked probability fell to 3.2%, down 22.2 percentage points from 25.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CD Guadalajara vs. Club Necaxa - More Markets
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.6%
The tracked probability rose to 24.6%, up 12.2 percentage points from 12.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31? — probability rises to 86%
The tracked probability rose to 86%, up 10.5 percentage points from 75.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
- Surge
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 53%
The tracked probability rose to 53%, up 3.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 27.7%
The tracked probability fell to 27.7%, down 3.5 percentage points from 31.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 8.0 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October? — probability rises to 53.5%
The tracked probability rose to 53.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31? — probability rises to 82.5%
The tracked probability rose to 82.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 78% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 7.55%
The tracked probability fell to 7.55%, down 3.6 percentage points from 11.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 5.1%
The tracked probability fell to 5.1%, down 4.7 percentage points from 9.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 63.6%
The tracked probability rose to 63.6%, up 4.1 percentage points from 59.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 68.85%
The tracked probability rose to 68.85%, up 10.2 percentage points from 58.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 18.95%
The tracked probability rose to 18.95%, up 3.0 percentage points from 15.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 58.95%
The tracked probability fell to 58.95%, down 13.1 percentage points from 72.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 93.5%+? — probability falls to 3.35%
The tracked probability fell to 3.35%, down 3.4 percentage points from 6.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR)?
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 81.1%
The tracked probability rose to 81.1%, up 5.5 percentage points from 75.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 51.5%
The tracked probability rose to 51.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October? — probability falls to 17.25%
The tracked probability fell to 17.25%, down 4.2 percentage points from 21.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 10.55%
The tracked probability fell to 10.55%, down 8.3 percentage points from 18.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 56.3%
The tracked probability rose to 56.3%, up 5.9 percentage points from 50.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 5.7 percentage points from 43.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability rises to 43.5%
The tracked probability rose to 43.5%, up 32.5 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 17%
The tracked probability fell to 17%, down 7.5 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Plunge
Will LEVIATÁN make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 25.25%
The tracked probability fell to 25.25%, down 15.2 percentage points from 40.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability falls to 47.5%
The tracked probability fell to 47.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 47%
The tracked probability fell to 47%, down 6.5 percentage points from 53.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 44.25%
The tracked probability rose to 44.25%, up 38.0 percentage points from 6.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Sporting Cristal be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 11.85%
The tracked probability fell to 11.85%, down 33.6 percentage points from 45.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 20? — probability falls to 94.05%
The tracked probability fell to 94.05%, down 4.0 percentage points from 98.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 20?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be -3°C on October 20? — probability falls to 50.95%
The tracked probability fell to 50.95%, down 48.5 percentage points from 99.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 20?
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 24.7%
The tracked probability fell to 24.7%, down 13.0 percentage points from 37.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25.1%
The tracked probability fell to 25.1%, down 16.8 percentage points from 41.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 22.1%
The tracked probability fell to 22.1%, down 20.6 percentage points from 42.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 11.55%
The tracked probability fell to 11.55%, down 13.5 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? — probability rises to 47.15%
The tracked probability rose to 47.15%, up 4.4 percentage points from 42.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 21?
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 16%
The tracked probability fell to 16%, down 9.1 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 65.8%
The tracked probability rose to 65.8%, up 3.1 percentage points from 62.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 24.55%
The tracked probability fell to 24.55%, down 5.4 percentage points from 29.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns