This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with one or more Iranian government officials between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
83.5%
84%
1 outcome
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 82%, down 4.5 percentage points from 86.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 87% → 82%
-4.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 82%, down 4.5 percentage points from 86.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 86.5% to 82% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T00:49:58.701Z to 2026-10-21T01:02:39.525Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 86.5% → 82%
Probability moved from 86.5% to 82% (-4.5 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 41 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 00:49:58 UTC to 2026-10-21 01:02:39 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 82.5% to 87% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z to 2026-10-20T21:33:27.573Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 78% to 82.5% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:04:34.416Z to 2026-10-20T21:19:32.293Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75.5% to 79% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:17:05.181Z to 2026-10-20T07:45:09.424Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 71.5% to 75% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:32:36.419Z to 2026-10-20T07:01:11.780Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with one or more Iranian government officials between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and one or more Iranian government officials are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting.
Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 5 significant updates
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31? — probability falls to 82%
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