Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 26.5%
The tracked probability fell to 26.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 30.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 45.05%
The tracked probability rose to 45.05%, up 42.4 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 23%
The tracked probability rose to 23%, up 20.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 8.8 percentage points from 11.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Jared Goff finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 49%
The tracked probability fell to 49%, down 3.0 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring QBs
- Plunge
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 41.95%
The tracked probability fell to 41.95%, down 5.4 percentage points from 47.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 81.5%
The tracked probability rose to 81.5%, up 19.5 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.15%
The tracked probability fell to 12.15%, down 7.2 percentage points from 19.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will LØS make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 59.35%
The tracked probability fell to 59.35%, down 15.1 percentage points from 74.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.15%
The tracked probability rose to 17.15%, up 13.6 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 46.2 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.1%
The tracked probability fell to 17.1%, down 11.0 percentage points from 28.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 30.5%
The tracked probability fell to 30.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 37.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Minnesota United FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 8.5 — probability falls to 1.7%
The tracked probability fell to 1.7%, down 4.7 percentage points from 6.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Minnesota United FC vs. St. Louis City SC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.95%
The tracked probability rose to 48.95%, up 14.1 percentage points from 34.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 25.6%
The tracked probability rose to 25.6%, up 22.6 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.45%
The tracked probability fell to 29.45%, down 7.5 percentage points from 36.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 89.5%
The tracked probability rose to 89.5%, up 11.5 percentage points from 78% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.55%
The tracked probability rose to 45.55%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 44.5 percentage points from 47.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.3%
The tracked probability rose to 24.3%, up 21.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.1%
The tracked probability fell to 34.1%, down 7.5 percentage points from 41.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.25%
The tracked probability rose to 50.25%, up 46.2 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 22.9 percentage points from 26.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.1 percentage points from 50.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC: Tottenham Hotspur FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 25.7%
The tracked probability fell to 25.7%, down 23.8 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC - More Markets
- Surge
Psim Yogyakarta vs. PSM Makassar: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 46.2%
The tracked probability rose to 46.2%, up 46.0 percentage points from 0.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Psim Yogyakarta vs. PSM Makassar - More Markets
- Surge
Spread: Sydney FC (-3.5) — probability rises to 46.45%
The tracked probability rose to 46.45%, up 44.0 percentage points from 2.5% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Sydney FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.65%
The tracked probability fell to 36.65%, down 7.3 percentage points from 43.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.95%
The tracked probability fell to 37.95%, down 6.6 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Tōkyō Verdy vs. FC Tōkyō: FC Tōkyō O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 25.9%
The tracked probability fell to 25.9%, down 23.5 percentage points from 49.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Tōkyō Verdy vs. FC Tōkyō - More Markets
- Surge
Spread: PSM Makassar (-3.5) — probability rises to 34.8%
The tracked probability rose to 34.8%, up 34.0 percentage points from 0.75% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Psim Yogyakarta vs. PSM Makassar - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.95%
The tracked probability fell to 36.95%, down 8.1 percentage points from 45.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 22.8 percentage points from 26.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: League Phase Largest Goal Differential
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.2%
The tracked probability fell to 42.2%, down 5.6 percentage points from 47.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $155 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 67%
The tracked probability fell to 67%, down 5.0 percentage points from 72% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.95%
The tracked probability fell to 36.95%, down 11.1 percentage points from 48.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 25.7%
The tracked probability fell to 25.7%, down 23.8 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets
- Surge
Will FlyQuest qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 84.5%
The tracked probability rose to 84.5%, up 12.0 percentage points from 72.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 47.2%
The tracked probability rose to 47.2%, up 42.0 percentage points from 5.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 41.05%
The tracked probability rose to 41.05%, up 38.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will AmaZulu be relegated from the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Africa Premiership: Teams relegated (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 43.2 percentage points from 46.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 21.6%
The tracked probability rose to 21.6%, up 18.0 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.25%
The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 23.0 percentage points from 26.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs