Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 16? — probability falls to 51%
The tracked probability fell to 51%, down 42.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 16?
- Surge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 54%
The tracked probability rose to 54%, up 4.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 12%
The tracked probability fell to 12%, down 25.0 percentage points from 37% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6? — probability falls to 49.05%
The tracked probability fell to 49.05%, down 46.4 percentage points from 95.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 15, 2026?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 16? — probability falls to 87.5%
The tracked probability fell to 87.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 16?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 16? — probability rises to 97.3%
The tracked probability rose to 97.3%, up 3.5 percentage points from 93.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 16?
- Surge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 31.5 percentage points from 18.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 25.7%
The tracked probability fell to 25.7%, down 23.8 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets
- Surge
Will FlyQuest qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 84.5%
The tracked probability rose to 84.5%, up 12.0 percentage points from 72.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 47.2%
The tracked probability rose to 47.2%, up 42.0 percentage points from 5.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 41.05%
The tracked probability rose to 41.05%, up 38.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will AmaZulu be relegated from the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Africa Premiership: Teams relegated (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 43.2 percentage points from 46.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 21.6%
The tracked probability rose to 21.6%, up 18.0 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.25%
The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 23.0 percentage points from 26.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Jacob Young win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 25.35%
The tracked probability rose to 25.35%, up 17.6 percentage points from 7.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 20.15%
The tracked probability rose to 20.15%, up 17.5 percentage points from 2.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 20.95%
The tracked probability rose to 20.95%, up 17.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 20.55%
The tracked probability rose to 20.55%, up 17.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17%
The tracked probability rose to 17%, up 14.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 21.05%
The tracked probability rose to 21.05%, up 18.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 57.5%
The tracked probability fell to 57.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 64% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Merrill Kelly win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 0.45%
The tracked probability fell to 0.45%, down 3.1 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Santos be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A? — probability rises to 50.05%
The tracked probability rose to 50.05%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brazil Série A: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Sam LaPorta finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 67.5%
The tracked probability fell to 67.5%, down 8.5 percentage points from 76% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 15.8 percentage points from 18.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 17.5 percentage points from 20.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 11.8%
The tracked probability rose to 11.8%, up 8.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 22.6 percentage points from 25.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on October 16? — probability falls to 75.5%
The tracked probability fell to 75.5%, down 18.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 16?
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 26.55%
The tracked probability rose to 26.55%, up 23.0 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Psim Yogyakarta vs. PSM Makassar: O/U 8.5 — probability falls to 0.25%
The tracked probability fell to 0.25%, down 37.8 percentage points from 38.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Psim Yogyakarta vs. PSM Makassar - More Markets
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 16? — probability falls to 93.8%
The tracked probability fell to 93.8%, down 3.9 percentage points from 97.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 16?
- Surge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 36.8%
The tracked probability rose to 36.8%, up 31.8 percentage points from 5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Connor Bedard record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 39%
The tracked probability rose to 39%, up 6.5 percentage points from 32.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026? — probability falls to 81%
The tracked probability fell to 81%, down 3.5 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 22.15%
The tracked probability rose to 22.15%, up 13.9 percentage points from 8.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability rises to 47.5%
The tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will Michael Porter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.8%
The tracked probability rose to 27.8%, up 17.9 percentage points from 9.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Eli Stowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.4%
The tracked probability fell to 3.4%, down 21.9 percentage points from 25.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 49.5%
The tracked probability fell to 49.5%, down 11.5 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.9%
The tracked probability rose to 17.9%, up 5.6 percentage points from 12.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Dominik Kotarski record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? — probability falls to 3.65%
The tracked probability fell to 3.65%, down 37.1 percentage points from 40.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Conference League: Most Clean Sheets (GK) 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 54%
The tracked probability fell to 54%, down 15.5 percentage points from 69.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Levante UD: Levante UD O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 12.7%
The tracked probability fell to 12.7%, down 3.8 percentage points from 16.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Levante UD - More Markets
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 19.5%
The tracked probability rose to 19.5%, up 15.8 percentage points from 3.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of October 12 2026?