activeSportsCloses Feb 28

UEFA Europa League: League Phase Largest Goal Differential

This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League with the best goal differential.

Current leader

3.1%

Largest 24h move-46.9 pp 24h

24h volume: $0
Liquidity: $63.9
Scheduled close: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC

Top candidates

3 outcomes

Will Red Bull Salzburg finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential?
-46.9 pp 24h3%
Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential?
-46.8 pp 24h3%
Will Viktoria Plzen finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential?
-46.8 pp 24h3%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring onlyNov 2

Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability falls to 3.1%

The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 50% → 3%

-46.8 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

Coverage updated Nov 2, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.85% to 3.1% (-46.75 percentage points), from 2026-11-02T16:40:35.961Z to 2026-11-02T21:38:35.797Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 49.85% → 3.1%
What changed
Probability moved from 49.85% to 3.1% (-46.75 percentage points). Observations were 4 hours 58 minutes apart: 2026-11-02 16:40:35 UTC to 2026-11-02 21:38:35 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Coverage updated Nov 2, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.95% to 3.1% (-46.85 percentage points), from 2026-11-02T16:40:35.961Z to 2026-11-02T21:38:35.797Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Nov 2, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.85% to 3.1% (-46.75 percentage points), from 2026-11-02T16:40:29.796Z to 2026-11-02T21:38:30.597Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 17, 2026, 11:33 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44.15% to 49.95% (+5.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T11:17:05.960Z to 2026-10-17T11:32:20.277Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 17, 2026, 11:18 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.95% to 44.15% (-5.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T11:02:35.847Z to 2026-10-17T11:17:05.960Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 17, 2026, 7:21 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 25.05% to 49.8% (+24.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T06:45:19.657Z to 2026-10-17T07:17:53.738Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 17, 2026, 6:52 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.9% to 25.05% (-24.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T06:30:44.035Z to 2026-10-17T06:45:19.657Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 16, 2026, 3:20 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44.95% to 49.85% (+4.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:46:05.689Z to 2026-10-16T15:16:33.647Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League with the best goal differential. Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the play-off round, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the club that scored the most total goals in the league phase. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the club that is listed first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.

Read the complete resolution rules

If the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability falls to 3.1%

Keep exploring

Plunge