Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.05%
The tracked probability fell to 5.05%, down 7.8 percentage points from 12.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23.85%
The tracked probability rose to 23.85%, up 20.8 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Spread: Chargers (-17.5) — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 22.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 26.2 percentage points from 29.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.85%
The tracked probability fell to 9.85%, down 7.7 percentage points from 17.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 80.5%
The tracked probability fell to 80.5%, down 15.0 percentage points from 95.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 15.7 percentage points from 19.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.85%
The tracked probability fell to 11.85%, down 6.4 percentage points from 18.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 33.4 percentage points from 36.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.05%
The tracked probability fell to 12.05%, down 7.6 percentage points from 19.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 46.35%
The tracked probability rose to 46.35%, up 22.8 percentage points from 23.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 30.8 percentage points from 34.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 13.3%
The tracked probability fell to 13.3%, down 7.7 percentage points from 21% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.85%
The tracked probability fell to 19.85%, down 4.7 percentage points from 24.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 15.5%
The tracked probability rose to 15.5%, up 9.5 percentage points from 6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 4.95%
The tracked probability fell to 4.95%, down 42.1 percentage points from 47.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.85%
The tracked probability fell to 17.85%, down 8.8 percentage points from 26.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.55%
The tracked probability fell to 20.55%, down 8.7 percentage points from 29.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.55%
The tracked probability rose to 45.55%, up 26.0 percentage points from 19.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability rises to 45.05%
The tracked probability rose to 45.05%, up 41.5 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: League Phase Largest Goal Differential
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 25.9%
The tracked probability rose to 25.9%, up 22.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 39.6 percentage points from 42.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Spread: AC Goianiense (-5.5) — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 47.3 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: AA Ponte Preta vs. AC Goianiense - More Markets
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 20.15%
The tracked probability rose to 20.15%, up 17.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 50.45%
The tracked probability rose to 50.45%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Spread: Safa (-3.5) — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 49.5 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Shamakhi FK vs. Safa - More Markets
- Surge
Will Dalton Kincaid finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 42.5%
The tracked probability rose to 42.5%, up 15.0 percentage points from 27.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 16? — probability rises to 87.5%
The tracked probability rose to 87.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 82% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ethereum price on October 16?
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability rises to 24.5%
The tracked probability rose to 24.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 16.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 20.5%
The tracked probability rose to 20.5%, up 17.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 19.55%
The tracked probability rose to 19.55%, up 16.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 46.4 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 21.5 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.8%
The tracked probability rose to 24.8%, up 21.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Santos be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brazil Série A: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 40.3%
The tracked probability rose to 40.3%, up 36.8 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the first RB to 1,000 rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 11.45%
The tracked probability fell to 11.45%, down 11.2 percentage points from 22.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First RB to 1,000 Rushing Yards
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 16? — probability falls to 70.1%
The tracked probability fell to 70.1%, down 18.4 percentage points from 88.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Moscow on October 16?
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 46%
The tracked probability rose to 46%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 47.8%
The tracked probability rose to 47.8%, up 44.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Micron (MU) finish week of October 12 above $990? — probability falls to 3.85%
The tracked probability fell to 3.85%, down 3.5 percentage points from 7.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Micron (MU) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 24%
The tracked probability fell to 24%, down 3.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 39%
The tracked probability rose to 39%, up 27.5 percentage points from 11.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? — probability falls to 79.5%
The tracked probability fell to 79.5%, down 14.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 20.0 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 43.5%
The tracked probability fell to 43.5%, down 24.5 percentage points from 68% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 23%
The tracked probability fell to 23%, down 4.5 percentage points from 27.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $135 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 19.5%
The tracked probability fell to 19.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.55%
The tracked probability rose to 27.55%, up 11.2 percentage points from 16.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader