This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 16?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97.4%, up 3.4 percentage points from 94% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 94% → 97%
+3.4 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 97.4%, up 3.4 percentage points from 94% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 94% to 97.4% (+3.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:46:05.689Z to 2026-10-16T15:00:22.311Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 94% → 97.4%
Probability moved from 94% to 97.4% (+3.4 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 17 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 14:46:05 UTC to 2026-10-16 15:00:22 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 90.5% to 94% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:31:17.859Z to 2026-10-16T14:46:05.689Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 85.5% to 90.5% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:18:01.794Z to 2026-10-16T14:31:17.859Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 91% to 85.5% (-5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T14:01:11.673Z to 2026-10-16T14:18:01.794Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 88.5% to 92% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T13:31:26.090Z to 2026-10-16T13:46:07.715Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 82% to 87.5% (+5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T12:33:19.007Z to 2026-10-16T12:49:23.004Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 76.5% to 81% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T12:03:05.980Z to 2026-10-16T12:21:39.143Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 72.5% to 76.5% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T11:49:16.391Z to 2026-10-16T12:03:05.980Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 16? — probability rises to 97.4%
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