AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- Yes 83%
- Leader 24h
- +7%
- 24h volume
- 118.6
- Liquidity
- 1.6K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
Yes
83%
+7% 24h
No
18%
-7% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge ( and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO,.
If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Yes probability of 76%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline