Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard ( reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- 1550 by December 31 19%
- Largest 24h move
- 1550 by December 31 +2%
- 24h volume
- 2.2K
- Liquidity
- 22.4K
Top candidates
4 outcomes
1550 by December 31
19%
+2% 24h
1600 by December 31
13%
0% 24h
1650 by December 31
10%
0% 24h
1700 by December 31
9%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard ( reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (, with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (. If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest 1550 by December 31 probability of 21%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline