Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 14%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31, 2026 0%
- 24h volume
- 540.6
- Liquidity
- 8.5K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
14%
0% 24h
June 30, 2026
1%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
Read the complete resolution rules
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 13%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline