How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026 45%
- Largest 24h move
- less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026 -7%
- 24h volume
- 791.3
- Liquidity
- 42.4K
Top candidates
8 outcomes
less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
45%
-7% 24h
5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
39%
+1% 24h
7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
11%
+1% 24h
9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
4%
-0% 24h
15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
3%
+0% 24h
Show all outcomes
13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
2%
+1%
more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
2%
0%
11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
1%
+1%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026 probability of 25%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline