100kt meteor strike in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 92%
- Leader 24h
- -1%
- 24h volume
- 1.3
- Liquidity
- 5K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
92%
-1% 24h
Yes
8%
+1% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository:. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S.
Read the complete resolution rules
Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
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