Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard ( for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30 2%
- Largest 24h move
- OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30 -0%
- 24h volume
- 12.2K
- Liquidity
- 95.2K
Top candidates
10 outcomes
OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30
2%
-0% 24h
DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30
1%
-0% 24h
Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30
0%
-0% 24h
Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30
0%
0% 24h
Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30
0%
0% 24h
Show all outcomes
Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30
0%
-0%
Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30
0%
0%
xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30
0%
0%
Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30
0%
0%
Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard ( for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30 probability of 0%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline