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Gemini 4.0 released by...?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Oct 13, 2026, 2:42 PM UTCEditorial method

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date.

Current leader

100%

Largest 24h move+58.5 pp 24h

24h volume: $104.4K
Liquidity: $0
Closed: Oct 15, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

Top candidates

2 outcomes

Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?
+58.5 pp 24h100%
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?
+32.5 pp 24h100%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyOct 13

Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? — probability rises to 95%

The tracked probability rose to 95%, up 3.5 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 92% → 95%

+3.5 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch for official company, product, regulatory, or research updates and whether later observations confirm the move.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 91.5% → 95.0%
What changed
Probability moved from 91.5% to 95% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes 42 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 14:32:50 UTC to 2026-10-13 14:42:32 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official company, product, regulatory, or research updates and whether later observations confirm the move.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.

Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.