Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date.
- Current leader
- No 100%
- Leader 24h
- +0%
- 24h volume
- 1.1K
- Liquidity
- 19.9K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
100%
+0% 24h
Yes
0%
-0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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Probability over time
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Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline