Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?
You can read more about that here: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 89%
- Leader 24h
- +4%
- 24h volume
- 637.9
- Liquidity
- 4.9K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
89%
+4% 24h
Yes
11%
-3% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
You can read more about that here: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify. Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g.
Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
Read the complete resolution rules
The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public. A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 98%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Yes moved lower from 16.5% to 11.0% (-5.5 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:26.207Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.207Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Yes" outcome in "Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?" made a sharp move from 16.5% to 11.0% between 2026-06-23T19:22:26.207Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:26.207Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -5.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.