Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 97%
- Leader 24h
- -8%
- 24h volume
- 32.9
- Liquidity
- 6.3K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
97%
-8% 24h
Yes
3%
+8% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 92%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline