Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 23.3%
The tracked probability rose to 23.3%, up 20.0 percentage points from 3.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 10.2%
The tracked probability rose to 10.2%, up 7.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.5 percentage points from 45.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.3%
The tracked probability fell to 28.3%, down 4.9 percentage points from 33.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 25.45%
The tracked probability rose to 25.45%, up 22.4 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 43.7 percentage points from 46.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 46.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.6%
The tracked probability rose to 33.6%, up 30.1 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.3 percentage points from 45.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 41.5 percentage points from 44.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.1 percentage points from 24.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 16? — probability rises to 95.15%
The tracked probability rose to 95.15%, up 16.5 percentage points from 78.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chicago on October 16?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 16? — probability rises to 97.5%
The tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 16?
- Surge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 48.05%
The tracked probability rose to 48.05%, up 42.9 percentage points from 5.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 22.65%
The tracked probability rose to 22.65%, up 19.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Spread: AC Goianiense (-5.5) — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.4 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: AA Ponte Preta vs. AC Goianiense - More Markets
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 49.05%
The tracked probability rose to 49.05%, up 8.2 percentage points from 40.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Club Brugge reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 5.1 percentage points from 6.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to 2027 final
- Surge
Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 4.9 percentage points from 44.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: League Phase Largest Goal Differential
- Surge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October? — probability rises to 22.5%
The tracked probability rose to 22.5%, up 3.3 percentage points from 19.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.3%
The tracked probability fell to 33.3%, down 7.0 percentage points from 40.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 21.6 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 46.9 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0.65%
The tracked probability fell to 0.65%, down 4.3 percentage points from 4.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 60.5%
The tracked probability fell to 60.5%, down 12.0 percentage points from 72.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.4%
The tracked probability rose to 33.4%, up 30.9 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability falls to 76%
The tracked probability fell to 76%, down 5.0 percentage points from 81% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.1%
The tracked probability fell to 36.1%, down 8.1 percentage points from 44.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 23%
The tracked probability fell to 23%, down 4.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 31.5%
The tracked probability rose to 31.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6? — probability falls to 50.05%
The tracked probability fell to 50.05%, down 4.0 percentage points from 54.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 15, 2026?
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.2%
The tracked probability fell to 3.2%, down 46.5 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 16.9 percentage points from 20.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 11.8 percentage points from 14.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.8%
The tracked probability fell to 32.8%, down 7.7 percentage points from 40.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 5%
The tracked probability fell to 5%, down 44.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.1%
The tracked probability rose to 24.1%, up 6.6 percentage points from 17.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.35%
The tracked probability rose to 16.35%, up 8.1 percentage points from 8.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $750? — probability rises to 20.6%
The tracked probability rose to 20.6%, up 18.6 percentage points from 2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.8%
The tracked probability fell to 39.8%, down 8.3 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4.45%
The tracked probability fell to 4.45%, down 8.3 percentage points from 12.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 11.5%
The tracked probability fell to 11.5%, down 38.0 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 11.0 percentage points from 34.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 71.5%
The tracked probability rose to 71.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability falls to 48%
The tracked probability fell to 48%, down 20.5 percentage points from 68.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 62.5%
The tracked probability fell to 62.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 72.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 26.45%
The tracked probability fell to 26.45%, down 18.8 percentage points from 45.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 19.55%
The tracked probability rose to 19.55%, up 16.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.9%
The tracked probability fell to 41.9%, down 6.5 percentage points from 48.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 34.55%
The tracked probability fell to 34.55%, down 11.7 percentage points from 46.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?