Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 10%
The tracked probability rose to 10%, up 4.5 percentage points from 5.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 10.9%
The tracked probability rose to 10.9%, up 7.5 percentage points from 3.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7.6%
The tracked probability fell to 7.6%, down 7.6 percentage points from 15.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.25%
The tracked probability fell to 39.25%, down 7.4 percentage points from 46.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 31.75%
The tracked probability fell to 31.75%, down 7.1 percentage points from 38.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 41.75%
The tracked probability rose to 41.75%, up 38.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.35%
The tracked probability fell to 40.35%, down 8.1 percentage points from 48.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 11%
The tracked probability fell to 11%, down 39.5 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability falls to 78.1%
The tracked probability fell to 78.1%, down 10.4 percentage points from 88.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- Surge
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 7.95%
The tracked probability rose to 7.95%, up 5.5 percentage points from 2.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability falls to 6.5%
The tracked probability fell to 6.5%, down 36.5 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 21.3 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 8.9 percentage points from 41.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 44.3 percentage points from 47.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 199.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 54.5%
The tracked probability rose to 54.5%, up 11.5 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 50.25%
The tracked probability rose to 50.25%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability falls to 45.3%
The tracked probability fell to 45.3%, down 3.2 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 25.5%
The tracked probability rose to 25.5%, up 22.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 16? — probability rises to 91%
The tracked probability rose to 91%, up 4.3 percentage points from 86.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chicago on October 16?
- Volume
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? — probability rises to 99.85%
Probability moved from 99.45% to 99.85%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $447,985.1905 to $1,124,017.5342. The cause is not established.
Market: Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 43.8 percentage points from 47.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0.5%
The tracked probability fell to 0.5%, down 49.5 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 35.05%
The tracked probability rose to 35.05%, up 15.5 percentage points from 19.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 29.85%
The tracked probability rose to 29.85%, up 14.8 percentage points from 15.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will FUT Esports Win an International Event in 2026? — probability falls to 27.9%
The tracked probability fell to 27.9%, down 21.7 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Valorant Team to Win an International in 2026
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 45.25%
The tracked probability rose to 45.25%, up 42.2 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 51%
The tracked probability fell to 51%, down 5.5 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 31.5%
The tracked probability rose to 31.5%, up 8.9 percentage points from 22.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 28.5%
The tracked probability rose to 28.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 21.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Makai Lemon 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability falls to 74%
The tracked probability fell to 74%, down 3.5 percentage points from 77.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.6%
The tracked probability fell to 2.6%, down 30.8 percentage points from 33.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Club Brugge reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 5.0 percentage points from 6.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Team to advance to 2027 final
- Plunge
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 59%
The tracked probability fell to 59%, down 27.0 percentage points from 86% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.15%
The tracked probability fell to 6.15%, down 4.6 percentage points from 10.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.6%
The tracked probability fell to 39.6%, down 8.5 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 11.5 percentage points from 53% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 46%
The tracked probability rose to 46%, up 6.0 percentage points from 40% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 42.95%
The tracked probability rose to 42.95%, up 38.6 percentage points from 4.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.35%
The tracked probability rose to 16.35%, up 7.3 percentage points from 9.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12? — probability rises to 8.5%
The tracked probability rose to 8.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 5.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
- Plunge
Will Wei Ling Hsu win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 10.0 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Plunge
Will Yana Wilson win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 10.0 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Plunge
Will Ningyao Xu win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 10.0 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Plunge
Will Menghan Li win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 10.0 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Plunge
Will Yuting Shi win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 10.0 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Plunge
Will Yuai Ji win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 10.0 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Plunge
Will Runzhi Pang win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 10.0 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner
- Plunge
Will Pauline Roussin-Bouchard win the 2026 Buick LPGA Shanghai? — probability falls to 1%
The tracked probability fell to 1%, down 10.0 percentage points from 11% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LPGA: Buick LPGA Shanghai Winner