This market will resolve to "Yes" if any version of the Roadster (including a prototype or other non-final version) that is physically present at the event performs a live, timed 0-60 mph acceleration run, from a standing start, under its own power, with a resulting time of less than 1.0 seconds.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
VolumeMonitoring onlyProbability remained at 99.95%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $2,137,475.1968 to $5,145,097.4757. The cause is not established.
Yes: 100% → 100%
0.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedProbability remained at 99.95%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $2,137,475.1968 to $5,145,097.4757. The cause is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 99.95% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T17:02:24.125Z to 2026-10-16T17:17:29.211Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 99.95% → 99.95%
Probability remained at 99.95% (0 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 5 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 17:02:24 UTC to 2026-10-16 17:17:29 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $2,137,475.1968 to $5,145,097.4757.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 99.45% to 99.85% (+0.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T16:30:25.906Z to 2026-10-16T16:47:59.704Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 97.15% to 92.65% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T03:48:26.058Z to 2026-10-16T04:02:06.403Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 76.5% to 97.1% (+20.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T01:32:23.642Z to 2026-10-16T02:00:20.496Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any version of the Roadster (including a prototype or other non-final version) that is physically present at the event performs a live, timed 0-60 mph acceleration run, from a standing start, under its own power, with a resulting time of less than 1.0 seconds.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Tesla is holding an event on October 15, 2026 at 8:55 PM ET where the company is expected to showcase an updated version of the Tesla Roadster. The qualifying run must be timed, and the resulting time must be demonstrated, not merely claimed.
A qualifying demonstration includes an onstage or on-screen display of a timer, speedometer, or other instrumentation showing the vehicle's elapsed time during the run, or an official Tesla-published time for that specific live run. Remote control is permitted.
If the demonstrated run is to a higher speed than 60 mph (e.g., a 0-100 mph run), it will establish a qualifying 0-60 mph time only if either: (a) a 0-60 mph split is separately and explicitly shown or stated as being less than 1.0 seconds, or (b) the full run's time to the higher speed is itself less than 1.0 seconds.
A run to a higher speed with only an aggregate time for that higher speed, and no stated or shown 0-60 split, will NOT establish a qualifying 0-60 time on its own.
The following will NOT qualify for a "Yes" resolution: - The vehicle being pushed, towed, launched, or otherwise assisted in accelerating by any external means, including but not limited to another vehicle, a launch mechanism, or people - The vehicle using an external power supply during the run - A time based on a rolling start rather than a standing start - A bare verbal claim by Tesla, Elon Musk, or any presenter that the Roadster "did" or "can do" a sub-1-second 0-60 time, without a demonstrated live run establishing that time - Any simulation, animation, or pre-recorded video of the run appearing to achieve this time, shown at the event but not performed live This market is specifically about the Tesla event scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 8:55 PM ET.
A demonstration at a separate location qualifies if Tesla presents it live as part of the event. A subsequent standalone demonstration does not qualify unless it forms part of an officially announced continuation of the event. If this event is postponed or rescheduled, this market will remain open and will resolve based on the rescheduled event, provided it takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The qualifying run must occur by that deadline. If no qualifying run has occurred by then, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be video of the qualifying event, including Tesla's official livestream. Official Tesla statements or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve this market, provided they establish that a live run met the conditions above.
A general claim that the Roadster achieved a sub-1-second 0-60 time, without establishing those conditions, will not alone qualify.
Living timeline · 4 significant updates
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? — probability holds at 99.95%
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