Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.45%
The tracked probability fell to 3.45%, down 46.4 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will "Sacrifice" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? — probability falls to 50%
The tracked probability fell to 50%, down 12.0 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (October 20)
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 16.2 percentage points from 19.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on October 16? — probability rises to 96.5%
The tracked probability rose to 96.5%, up 34.0 percentage points from 62.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 16?
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 15.6 percentage points from 18.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability rises to 73.9%
The tracked probability rose to 73.9%, up 10.4 percentage points from 63.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 22.7 percentage points from 25.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.45%
The tracked probability fell to 3.45%, down 21.6 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.3 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.95%
The tracked probability fell to 38.95%, down 10.4 percentage points from 49.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.9%
The tracked probability rose to 46.9%, up 25.2 percentage points from 21.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 10.25%
The tracked probability fell to 10.25%, down 13.0 percentage points from 23.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 23.45%
The tracked probability rose to 23.45%, up 20.3 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 61.7%
The tracked probability fell to 61.7%, down 16.3 percentage points from 78% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 44.9%
The tracked probability rose to 44.9%, up 41.4 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.6%
The tracked probability rose to 25.6%, up 22.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 21.5%
The tracked probability rose to 21.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 14.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Makai Lemon 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.55%
The tracked probability fell to 26.55%, down 8.4 percentage points from 34.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 16.3%
The tracked probability fell to 16.3%, down 12.1 percentage points from 28.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 199.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 40.5%
The tracked probability rose to 40.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 37.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 43.45%
The tracked probability rose to 43.45%, up 4.4 percentage points from 39% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 53.5%
The tracked probability fell to 53.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.75%
The tracked probability fell to 34.75%, down 4.3 percentage points from 39.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 70.25%
The tracked probability fell to 70.25%, down 6.7 percentage points from 76.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 22.5 percentage points from 25.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Matthew Golden have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 31.5%
The tracked probability rose to 31.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 23.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.45%
The tracked probability fell to 36.45%, down 5.8 percentage points from 42.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.35%
The tracked probability fell to 35.35%, down 8.4 percentage points from 43.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 16? — probability falls to 0.5%
The tracked probability fell to 0.5%, down 49.6 percentage points from 50.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Where will it rain on October 16?
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 65%
The tracked probability rose to 65%, up 8.5 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? — probability rises to 37.3%
The tracked probability rose to 37.3%, up 3.2 percentage points from 34.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.45%
The tracked probability fell to 3.45%, down 19.7 percentage points from 23.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability rises to 84%
The tracked probability rose to 84%, up 27.0 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.9 percentage points from 25.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? — probability falls to 74.5%
The tracked probability fell to 74.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 80.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 45.85%
The tracked probability fell to 45.85%, down 3.8 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 52%
The tracked probability rose to 52%, up 12.0 percentage points from 40% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Chet Holmgren lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 16.25%
The tracked probability fell to 16.25%, down 11.3 percentage points from 27.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B? — probability falls to 66.5%
The tracked probability fell to 66.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 70.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above __?
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 69%
The tracked probability rose to 69%, up 9.5 percentage points from 59.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 14.5%
The tracked probability fell to 14.5%, down 11.0 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 21.8 percentage points from 24.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 20.2 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on October 17? — probability falls to 74.5%
The tracked probability fell to 74.5%, down 18.0 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 17?
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $32 in October? — probability rises to 40.85%
The tracked probability rose to 40.85%, up 15.8 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 25.55%
The tracked probability rose to 25.55%, up 12.7 percentage points from 12.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 9.0 percentage points from 12% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)