Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 41.5 percentage points from 45.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.25%
The tracked probability rose to 50.25%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 22.5 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 19.5%
The tracked probability rose to 19.5%, up 16.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.3%
The tracked probability rose to 49.3%, up 46.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 38.5%
The tracked probability fell to 38.5%, down 12.5 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 27.9 percentage points from 30.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 87.4%
The tracked probability fell to 87.4%, down 6.2 percentage points from 93.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability rises to 72%
The tracked probability rose to 72%, up 5.4 percentage points from 66.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Team to advance to 2027 quarters
- Surge
Will it rain in Dallas, TX on October 16? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 48.4 percentage points from 1.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Where will it rain on October 16?
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 22.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 3.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 72.5%
The tracked probability rose to 72.5%, up 6.5 percentage points from 66% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.85%
The tracked probability rose to 47.85%, up 11.2 percentage points from 36.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.45%
The tracked probability fell to 26.45%, down 9.4 percentage points from 35.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.05%
The tracked probability rose to 45.05%, up 11.1 percentage points from 33.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 7.5 percentage points from 10.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 8.3 percentage points from 11.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will Michael Porter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.25%
The tracked probability rose to 16.25%, up 5.6 percentage points from 10.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 25.2%
The tracked probability rose to 25.2%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 59.5%
The tracked probability rose to 59.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability falls to 2.1%
The tracked probability fell to 2.1%, down 34.0 percentage points from 36.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Cardinals vs. Rams
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 31.8 percentage points from 34.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
1Q Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) — probability falls to 4.2%
The tracked probability fell to 4.2%, down 33.7 percentage points from 37.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Plunge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability falls to 2.1%
The tracked probability fell to 2.1%, down 35.8 percentage points from 37.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Titans vs. Colts
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.55%
The tracked probability fell to 41.55%, down 7.8 percentage points from 49.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 21.3 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.55%
The tracked probability rose to 45.55%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 22.3 percentage points from 2.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability falls to 2.1%
The tracked probability fell to 2.1%, down 23.9 percentage points from 25.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bills vs. Raiders
- Plunge
Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 45.5%
The tracked probability fell to 45.5%, down 13.0 percentage points from 58.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 40+ Goals
- Surge
Will Elias Pettersson record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 20%
The tracked probability rose to 20%, up 6.0 percentage points from 14% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.35%
The tracked probability rose to 49.35%, up 46.8 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 21.4 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.35%
The tracked probability rose to 49.35%, up 43.0 percentage points from 6.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 22.5 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.3 percentage points from 25.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability falls to 2.1%
The tracked probability fell to 2.1%, down 35.5 percentage points from 37.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Panthers vs. Eagles
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 26.9 percentage points from 23.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.95%
The tracked probability rose to 24.95%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 47.1 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 MLS Golden Boot? — probability rises to 58.5%
The tracked probability rose to 58.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 MLS Golden Boot?
- Surge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 23.45%
The tracked probability rose to 23.45%, up 20.1 percentage points from 3.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.35%
The tracked probability rose to 46.35%, up 41.8 percentage points from 4.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.75%
The tracked probability rose to 46.75%, up 10.0 percentage points from 36.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $32 in October? — probability falls to 16.6%
The tracked probability fell to 16.6%, down 5.7 percentage points from 22.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Spread: Chargers (-17.5) — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 46.4 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs