Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 27.1 percentage points from 22.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 6.5 percentage points from 18.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?
- Surge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 41.15%
The tracked probability rose to 41.15%, up 39.3 percentage points from 1.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 42.2 percentage points from 45.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 68.05%
The tracked probability fell to 68.05%, down 9.0 percentage points from 77.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 25.4%
The tracked probability fell to 25.4%, down 24.1 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? — probability rises to 52%
The tracked probability rose to 52%, up 3.0 percentage points from 49% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.35%
The tracked probability fell to 3.35%, down 22.3 percentage points from 25.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 19.6 percentage points from 22.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 2.9%
The tracked probability fell to 2.9%, down 22.4 percentage points from 25.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,749.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 31.5%
The tracked probability rose to 31.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.3%
The tracked probability rose to 50.3%, up 47.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026? — probability rises to 27.3%
The tracked probability rose to 27.3%, up 12.4 percentage points from 14.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $32 in October? — probability falls to 20.05%
The tracked probability fell to 20.05%, down 20.5 percentage points from 40.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.7 percentage points from 49.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 17? — probability falls to 50%
The tracked probability fell to 50%, down 27.0 percentage points from 77% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Qingdao on October 17?
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 47%
The tracked probability rose to 47%, up 42.3 percentage points from 4.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.0 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.95%
The tracked probability rose to 24.95%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 47.1 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 85.9%
The tracked probability fell to 85.9%, down 7.0 percentage points from 92.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on October 17? — probability falls to 73%
The tracked probability fell to 73%, down 19.5 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 17?
- Plunge
Will Ezequiel Duran win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 67%
The tracked probability fell to 67%, down 18.9 percentage points from 85.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 92.85%
The tracked probability rose to 92.85%, up 7.0 percentage points from 85.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 7.0 percentage points from 18% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.6 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 21.9 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.2 percentage points from 45.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 21.8 percentage points from 24.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.7%
The tracked probability fell to 6.7%, down 10.2 percentage points from 16.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Tōkyō Verdy vs. FC Tōkyō: FC Tōkyō O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 49.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Tōkyō Verdy vs. FC Tōkyō - More Markets
- Plunge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 10.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 73.75%
The tracked probability rose to 73.75%, up 3.3 percentage points from 70.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 13.25%
The tracked probability fell to 13.25%, down 6.7 percentage points from 19.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.75%
The tracked probability fell to 19.75%, down 9.9 percentage points from 29.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.35%
The tracked probability fell to 31.35%, down 6.4 percentage points from 37.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Next DeepSeek Flash released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 87.25%
The tracked probability rose to 87.25%, up 3.2 percentage points from 84.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next DeepSeek Flash released by...?
- Surge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 74%
The tracked probability rose to 74%, up 9.5 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will Chet Holmgren lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 5.05%
The tracked probability fell to 5.05%, down 20.0 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Michael Porter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 5.05%
The tracked probability fell to 5.05%, down 20.0 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 75.5%
The tracked probability rose to 75.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 72.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 63%
The tracked probability rose to 63%, up 14.5 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.95%
The tracked probability fell to 20.95%, down 5.4 percentage points from 26.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 27.3 percentage points from 22.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 5.05%
The tracked probability fell to 5.05%, down 7.6 percentage points from 12.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader