This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Current leader
100%
100%
2 outcomes
Next DeepSeek Flash released by October 31, 2026?
Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
VolumeMonitoring onlyProbability remained at 99.95%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $447.4567 to $1,360.4767. The cause is not established.
Yes: 100% → 100%
0.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedProbability remained at 99.95%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $447.4567 to $1,360.4767. The cause is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 99.95% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:32:00.063Z to 2026-10-17T08:46:39.870Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 99.95% → 99.95%
Probability remained at 99.95% (0 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 40 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 08:32:00 UTC to 2026-10-17 08:46:39 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $447.4567 to $1,360.4767.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 93.55% to 99.55% (+6 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:02:51.048Z to 2026-10-17T08:17:41.057Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 87.25% to 92.55% (+5.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T07:02:41.301Z to 2026-10-17T07:17:53.738Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 84.1% to 87.25% (+3.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T06:45:19.657Z to 2026-10-17T07:02:41.301Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 80.5% to 86.65% (+6.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T06:16:46.108Z to 2026-10-17T06:30:44.035Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.5% to 80.45% (-16.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T05:15:54.898Z to 2026-10-17T05:32:42.617Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 86% to 93.5% (+7.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T22:15:31.544Z to 2026-10-16T22:32:03.660Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 83% to 86% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T22:00:32.931Z to 2026-10-16T22:15:31.544Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Flash model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Flash," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations.
For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.2-Flash, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Flash would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro, DeepSeek-OCR, or DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Vision-Exp, Pro-tier models such as DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813 or DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, and the existing DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash (released September 10, 2026), including any open-weight re-release, snapshot, or re-pointing of the deepseek-flash API alias to it, will not qualify.
A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's lite or Flash endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's fast, low-cost model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website.
Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026? — probability holds at 99.95%
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