Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31? — probability rises to 73.5%
The tracked probability rose to 73.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 66% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NATO downs another Russian drone by...?
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.6%
The tracked probability rose to 48.6%, up 3.8 percentage points from 44.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.8%
The tracked probability rose to 16.8%, up 13.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.5 percentage points from 3.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 26.85%
The tracked probability rose to 26.85%, up 22.0 percentage points from 4.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 44.6 percentage points from 47.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Volume
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? — probability falls to 44.5%
Probability moved from 45.5% to 44.5%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $5,025.4603 to $32,665.2503. The cause is not established.
Market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 10.15%
The tracked probability fell to 10.15%, down 15.1 percentage points from 25.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 36.5%
The tracked probability fell to 36.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 13.6 percentage points from 16.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 42.9%
The tracked probability rose to 42.9%, up 11.0 percentage points from 31.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on October 18? — probability falls to 50.5%
The tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 42.5 percentage points from 93% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 18?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on October 18? — probability rises to 92.15%
The tracked probability rose to 92.15%, up 11.6 percentage points from 80.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 18?
- Surge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 8.5%
The tracked probability rose to 8.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.3%
The tracked probability fell to 41.3%, down 3.2 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026? — probability falls to 84.5%
The tracked probability fell to 84.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will Parma qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? — probability rises to 27.05%
The tracked probability rose to 27.05%, up 12.2 percentage points from 14.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Serie A: Team to qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 20.4 percentage points from 23.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 43.9%
The tracked probability fell to 43.9%, down 4.2 percentage points from 48.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 67.45%
The tracked probability rose to 67.45%, up 9.9 percentage points from 57.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 34.3%
The tracked probability rose to 34.3%, up 30.8 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.85%
The tracked probability rose to 16.85%, up 13.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.1%
The tracked probability rose to 17.1%, up 14.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B? — probability rises to 67.5%
The tracked probability rose to 67.5%, up 14.0 percentage points from 53.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above __?
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 7.2 percentage points from 10.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 74.75%
The tracked probability rose to 74.75%, up 3.3 percentage points from 71.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 76.6%
The tracked probability rose to 76.6%, up 10.0 percentage points from 66.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 13.8 percentage points from 16.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 3m? — probability rises to 5.35%
The tracked probability rose to 5.35%, up 3.6 percentage points from 1.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 10.0 percentage points from 13.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 57.55%
The tracked probability fell to 57.55%, down 22.0 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 4.85%
The tracked probability fell to 4.85%, down 20.0 percentage points from 24.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.5%
The tracked probability fell to 44.5%, down 3.6 percentage points from 48.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 43.65%
The tracked probability rose to 43.65%, up 9.5 percentage points from 34.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 70.45%
The tracked probability fell to 70.45%, down 4.8 percentage points from 75.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.45%
The tracked probability fell to 44.45%, down 4.0 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B? — probability falls to 53.5%
The tracked probability fell to 53.5%, down 13.0 percentage points from 66.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above __?
- Surge
Will Matthew Golden have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 33%
The tracked probability rose to 33%, up 3.0 percentage points from 30% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.2%
The tracked probability fell to 33.2%, down 7.7 percentage points from 40.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 45.25%
The tracked probability fell to 45.25%, down 3.1 percentage points from 48.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 62%
The tracked probability rose to 62%, up 4.5 percentage points from 57.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 37.7%
The tracked probability rose to 37.7%, up 12.6 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23.5%
The tracked probability rose to 23.5%, up 20.4 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 56%
The tracked probability fell to 56%, down 4.0 percentage points from 60% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 42.4 percentage points from 45.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 13.9 percentage points from 16.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 12.5 percentage points from 15.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 13.7 percentage points from 16.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader