Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
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- Current leader
- August 31 98%
- Largest 24h move
- September 30 -10%
- 24h volume
- 304K
- Liquidity
- 261.8K
Top candidates
5 outcomes
August 31
98%
0% 24h
September 30
89%
-10% 24h
October 31
81%
-1% 24h
December 31
74%
-4% 24h
November 30
52%
-3% 24h
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Needs a refreshThe Israel x Iran ceasefire market has recently been repricing in both directions. After a prior rise in the ceasefire-through-July 30 yes contract to the high 90s, the August 9 yes contract now appears to have slipped from 76.5% to 72% over the latest 24-hour window. The available material does not confirm a specific catalyst, so the move should be treated as market repricing rather than a verified new development.
No major update has changed the story in 52 days.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- Polymarket-reported 4.5-point 24h price drop for the August 9 yes contract.
- Earlier Polymarket-reported price increases in the broader ceasefire sequence, including a 3.3-point 24h rise and a prior 7.0-point 24h rise.
- No specific catalyst is confirmed in the provided material.
Unresolved questions
- What, if anything, triggered the latest drop in the August 9 yes contract?
- Does the move reflect fresh information or mostly broad market repricing?
- Will the ceasefire-related contracts stabilize, continue falling, or reverse again?
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
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