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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Post

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).

Current leader

62.5%

63%

Largest 24h move+1.0 pp 24h
24h volume
$47.3K
Liquidity
$207.3K
Scheduled close

Top candidates

2 outcomes

  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

    -3.5 pp 24h63%
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

    +1.0 pp 24h45%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring only

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — probability falls to 63.5%

The tracked probability fell to 63.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 66.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 67% → 64%

-3.0 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

The tracked probability fell to 63.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 66.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability fell from 66.5% to 63.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T19:47:21.604Z to 2026-11-04T20:01:44.298Z (UTC).

    Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.

    The measured move

    Yes: 66.5% → 63.5%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 66.5% to 63.5% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 19:47:21 UTC to 2026-11-04 20:01:44 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

  2. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 40% to 43.5% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T18:47:16.502Z to 2026-11-04T19:00:20.637Z (UTC).

  3. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability fell from 45.5% to 42% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T18:03:13.093Z to 2026-11-04T18:16:57.047Z (UTC).

  4. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 55% to 60.5% (+5.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T16:17:54.145Z to 2026-11-04T16:32:49.441Z (UTC).

  5. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability fell from 47% to 41.5% (-5.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T05:32:15.410Z to 2026-11-04T05:46:56.855Z (UTC).

  6. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 42% to 47% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T05:17:40.888Z to 2026-11-04T05:32:15.410Z (UTC).

  7. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability fell from 37.5% to 34.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T01:31:10.145Z to 2026-11-04T01:45:41.305Z (UTC).

  8. Coverage updated

    Observed movement

    Observed probability rose from 35% to 38.5% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-03T23:30:54.627Z to 2026-11-03T23:46:16.647Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).

Resolves No

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country.

An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

Read the complete resolution rules

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.

MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.

Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.

Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.

Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.

No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — probability falls to 63.5%

Keep exploring

Plunge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — probability falls to 63.5%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Surge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? — probability rises to 43.5%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Plunge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? — probability falls to 42%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Surge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — probability rises to 60.5%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Plunge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — probability falls to 41.5%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Surge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — probability rises to 47%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Plunge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? — probability falls to 34.5%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Surge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? — probability rises to 38.5%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Surge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — probability rises to 46%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Plunge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — probability falls to 43%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Plunge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? — probability falls to 33.5%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Plunge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — probability falls to 51.5%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

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