Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
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- Current leader
- July 23 100%
- Largest 24h move
- July 26 +21%
- 24h volume
- 1.6M
- Liquidity
- 447.2K
Top candidates
12 outcomes
July 23
100%
+1% 24h
July 22
100%
+0% 24h
July 24
99%
+8% 24h
July 25
94%
+19% 24h
July 26
80%
+21% 24h
Show all outcomes
July 27
75%
—
July 28
71%
—
July 29
67%
—
July 30
66%
—
July 31
64%
+15%
August 15
47%
+15%
August 31
37%
+16%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
Resolves No
Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country.
An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
Read the complete resolution rules
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.
MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.
Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.
Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
July 25 ceasefire market jumps as Israel-Iran headlines stay active
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Up to dateNo prior story summary has been stored yet. Latest update: The July 25 "yes" contract rose from 75.5% to 93.5% between July 24 and July 25, while live Middle East coverage continued to track Israel-Iran developments. The move shows stronger market confidence, but the source context does not confirm a single cause.
This story reflects the latest meaningful update PolySays has published.
Latest update
July 25 ceasefire market jumps as Israel-Iran headlines stay active
The July 25 "yes" contract rose from 75.5% to 93.5% between July 24 and July 25, while live Middle East coverage continued to track Israel-Iran developments. The move shows stronger market confidence, but the source context does not confirm a single cause.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The July 25 Israel x Iran ceasefire market moved sharply higher over roughly one day, with the Yes price rising from 0.755 to 0.935 between 2026-07-24T05:00:18.000Z and 2026-07-25T05:30:09.315Z, a gain of 18.0 points. The matched source is a Jerusalem Post live-updates feed covering Israel, Iran, and the broader Middle East on July 25. That backdrop may have supported the move, but the provided evidence does not identify a specific headline or event as the sole driver, so causality should be treated as unconfirmed rather than assumed.
What changed
The July 25 Yes contract surged 18.0 points, from 75.5% to 93.5%, over the July 24 to July 25 window.
What to watch next
Watch for any fresh ceasefire-related statements, military activity, or verified diplomatic updates that could confirm or challenge the higher market level.
Sources
- · The Jerusalem Post
Live Updates: Latest from Israel, Iran, and Middle East The Jerusalem Post
- · The Jerusalem Post
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