activeGeopoliticsJuly 26 +21% 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).

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Current leader
July 23 100%
Largest 24h move
July 26 +21%
24h volume
1.6M
Liquidity
447.2K

Top candidates

12 outcomes

July 23

100%

+1% 24h

July 22

100%

+0% 24h

July 24

99%

+8% 24h

July 25

94%

+19% 24h

July 26

80%

+21% 24h

Show all outcomes

July 27

75%

July 28

71%

July 29

67%

July 30

66%

July 31

64%

+15%

August 15

47%

+15%

August 31

37%

+16%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).

Resolves No

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country.

An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

Read the complete resolution rules

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g.

MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.

Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.

Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.

Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.

If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.

No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Living timeline · 1 significant update

July 25 ceasefire market jumps as Israel-Iran headlines stay active

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Story so far

Up to date

No prior story summary has been stored yet. Latest update: The July 25 "yes" contract rose from 75.5% to 93.5% between July 24 and July 25, while live Middle East coverage continued to track Israel-Iran developments. The move shows stronger market confidence, but the source context does not confirm a single cause.

This story reflects the latest meaningful update PolySays has published.

Latest update

July 25 ceasefire market jumps as Israel-Iran headlines stay active

The July 25 "yes" contract rose from 75.5% to 93.5% between July 24 and July 25, while live Middle East coverage continued to track Israel-Iran developments. The move shows stronger market confidence, but the source context does not confirm a single cause.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • No open questions have been logged yet.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The July 25 Israel x Iran ceasefire market moved sharply higher over roughly one day, with the Yes price rising from 0.755 to 0.935 between 2026-07-24T05:00:18.000Z and 2026-07-25T05:30:09.315Z, a gain of 18.0 points. The matched source is a Jerusalem Post live-updates feed covering Israel, Iran, and the broader Middle East on July 25. That backdrop may have supported the move, but the provided evidence does not identify a specific headline or event as the sole driver, so causality should be treated as unconfirmed rather than assumed.

    What changed

    The July 25 Yes contract surged 18.0 points, from 75.5% to 93.5%, over the July 24 to July 25 window.

    What to watch next

    Watch for any fresh ceasefire-related statements, military activity, or verified diplomatic updates that could confirm or challenge the higher market level.

    Sources

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